When a Champion isn't a Champion

The UNC-Mississippi State game in the second round of the NIT was probably the most enjoyable Heels game to watch all season (other contenders - beating Mich St at home; the first half of the Syracuse game; heading into Winston-Salem and venting some frustration).

Whether it's a good thing or bad thing that my team's best game came in the second round of the NIT, I'm not sure.

But now that they have three solid wins against decent competition in the NIT under their belt, these Heels need to lose. Soon. I don't care whether it's against Rhode Island in the semifinals or the Dayton/Illinois winner in the finals. But I don't want the Heels to win the NIT.

Why? Because one of the most valuable things in sports is the team that plays with a chip on its shoulder. And this team, next season, needs to have a gigantic one. Winning a bunch of games at the end of the season softens the pain, eases the sting and isn't nearly as powerful of a motivating tool as an abysmal end of the season (which the Heels had up until the NIT).

These guys aren't, and shouldn't feel like champions. They should be proud of what they've been able to do over the last few games and pleased with some signs of maturation from John Henson and LDII. But being proud toes the fine line between being pleased and satisfied.

I just want the losses, the bad press, the taunting and the disparaging comments about this year's team to fuel them in the offseason and into the next season. I need that to be the rage that powers their improvement. They need to be so sick of what this season was that they're determined to do what it takes to make sure nothing like that happens again.

It's fun that the Heels are still playing, that we can see Henson throw down ridiculous dunks, and that Will Graves might be improving his shot selection and that the young guards are making fewer mistakes. But the game I'm most concerned about is not UNC-Rhode Island on Tuesday in the NIT.

It's UNC against whoever they open the 2010-11 season against. Here's to beating Long Beach State by 45.

Overreactions

First, let me start by saying that my wife's Final Four was Cornell, Kansas, Gonzaga, and Baylor. And the first of those 4 teams to go out was Kansas. Hilarious.

But second, no sooner had the Panthers corralled the final rebound to shock the nation on Saturday night, but the reactions started pouring out all over ESPN, SI, and similar sites. Behold the parity of college basketball! The mid-major tag should be outlawed! There are no favorites anymore! College basketball will never be the same! (Don't believe the reaction was this strong? See here)

Okay. Let's take a deep breath here.

College basketball has not changed forever. There is not a new-found parity. No groundbreaking claims should be made based on this. It's one game, people. Shocking? Certainly. Perhaps one of the top 10 upsets that I personally have seen in the Dance. But there have been upsets before. There has been parity before. And all that really happened Saturday night was that Kansas didn't quite take the Panthers as seriously as they should have. Don't believe me? Well, with 2 minutes to go, when Bill Self finally woke up and realized his team might actually lose, he started pressing, his team started really getting after it defensively, and they came roaring back easily. They just ran out of time (and had one of the ballsiest shots I've ever seen go down against them). Imagine what would have happened if they had started trying like that on defense with 5 minutes left.

I also have a tough time getting behind the mid-majors as much as many in the national media. The fact of the matter for me has always been that, as much as I love the first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament, what gets lost a little in that shuffle is that it is still a tournament for the national championship. In the end, that's kind of the only thing that matters. If you don't have a chance to win the whole thing, I'm not sure you can say you're on the same pedestal as the guys who can. And until one of these "mid-majors" goes all the way and wins the national championship, I'm not going to give them the same respect that I give the big boys. I'm just not. Sorry, Chris Mack. The 4 Sweet 16's are impressive, no doubt, but they're not the Final Four. Or the whole thing.

In case you can't tell, I'm also against expansion for similar reasons. But we'll get to that after the season.

Quick thoughts on the games tonight:

1) Syracuse-Butler. I picked Syracuse to go to the finals in my bracket, but I didn't really like the pick. I didn't think the Orange had been playing all that well. Now, I love that pick. The Orange once again looked like their full potential against Gonzaga on Sunday. Butler is a solid team, but I don't think they can keep up with Wes Johnson and I think he has a big game in a 10-point 'Cuse victory.

2) West Virginia-Washington. Everyone loves Washington on the upset here, and for good reason. The Huskies are playing really well right now, and it's really hard to gauge how the Mountaineers will respond with Truck Bryant out. I think if Bryant had gotten hurt BEFORE the tournament, they'd have a better chance because they would have had time to get used to playing without him. But with just a few days to do so, I think they come out with too little confidence and Washington continues their run.

3) Xavier-Kansas State. Here are two teams I know next to nothing about. Obviously, as I picked both to lose in the 2nd round. I wish I could offer some legitimate thoughts, but I just can't. I'm sorry.

4) Cornell-Kentucky. Easily the matchup I'm most excited to see. So much so that I fully anticipate staying up to watch it even with an exam tomorrow. Cornell has looked awfully impressive, but you can't overstate the fact that they've played two RELATIVELY slower, less athletic teams in Temple and Wisconsin. The Big Red has never run into anything like John Wall or DeMarcus Cousins, and I would be particularly surprised if Cousins and Patrick Patterson don't have an absolute field day inside. If Cornell can hit some open 3's- and they will certainly get some open looks against the Kentucky D- then they can keep this close. But if they get cold early, it's going to get ugly.

Friday Tourney Thoughts

Holy Tournament, Batman.

I walked into the student lounge on Thursday afternoon to check scores during an afternoon reprieve, and walked right into one double overtime game and another that was about to the first overtime- between a 2 and a 15. And the rest of that day did not disappoint. Here are my top 3 thoughts from the first round, as well as the 3 I'm most looking forward to for tomorrow.

- Michigan State, whom for some reason I decided in my bracket was going to beat Kansas in the Sweet 16, proceeded to look terrible in a near-second-half collapse against New Mexico State tonight. The Spartans have been disappointing during the regular season largely because of their difficulties scoring the basketball, and tonight was no different, as they went for long stretches without getting any good shots, including seemingly missing 1 of every 2 free throws. Never count Tom Izzo out, certainly, but if I could go back and redo my bracket, I might think about it.

- It's always a little difficult to make generalities about the tournament in the first round, because the best teams are inevitably in blowouts against overmatched teams. But if you're looking for a darkhorse contender who proved something in the opening round, how about St Mary's or Butler? Butler drew a tough 12 seed in UTEP, which spent some time in the top 25 this season, but proceeded to turn a halftime deficit into an 18-pound thrashing. Likewise, St. Mary's shrugged off a lot of ESPN.com's darling pick Richmond with another impressive second half. I'm not implying that either of these teams is going all the way, but I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them dancing deep into the second weekend. Which, of course, is exactly why I picked both to lose in the first round.

- What has happened to Villanova? Scottie Reynolds put up a 1-14 effort during regulation and the Wildcats, top 3 in the country about a month ago, found themselves down 5 with a minute to play against 15-seed Robert Morris. 'Nova has a lot of experience back from last year's Final Four team, but they've been downright mediocre over the past 3 weeks, losing 5 of 7 before finally getting it together for about 6 minutes at the end of this game. I still feel OK about my pick with them, mostly because their draw is absurdly weak, but they've got to get it figured out soon or the aforementioned St. Mary's Gaels are going to give them everything they can handle tomorrow.

3 for Saturday:

- Wake Forest-Kentucky. Not sure if any of you stayed up to watch the Deacs knock off Texas in another OT game last night, but if not you missed this clutch shot from Ish Smith. If you haven't seen it, click on the link- it's pretty strong work. But the reason I like this matchup is that there are two legitimate reasons why Wake could pull the upset here- first, Kentucky is a streaky-at-best outside shooting team, and they depend on John Wall driving the basketball to create a good portion of their offense. Wake, however, employs a version of the "Pack Line" defense, which is built to keep drivers out of the lane- and they have the bigs inside to really make it work. UK is going to have to knock down some 3's, and they don't always do that. Second, Ish Smith is going to make John Wall work on the defensive end of the floor with his speed, and that could wear the star freshman down just enough to make him less effective on offense. It will be interesting to see how Wall handles playing against a guy with the transition speed of Ish. I still think Kentucky will win, and probably pretty handily, but if they struggle just a bit, Wake is the type of team that could give them trouble.

- Old Dominion-Baylor. If for no other reason, I just want to figure out what all the Baylor hype is about. I know that section is weak (see above, re: Villanova), but I just don't see the Bears as a Final Four team. Maybe they'll come out and thrash the Monarchs and show me why I should think otherwise. Then again, my wife picked them to win it all, and she's beating me in our bracket pool. Maybe I should reconsider...

- St. Mary's-Villanova. See above. The Gaels are playing with a ton of confidence right now, and you have to know that they firmly believe they're going to win this game. Villanova, on the other hand, is living on the opposite pole of the confidence scale. If you're a fan of the mid-majors, this is probably your number 1 game to watch tomorrow.

UNC

For the Carolina fans out there, I found this a nice article on Insidecarolina about the win over Bill & Mary on Tuesday night.

http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/954739.html

This really sums up my thoughts on that game nicely. For about 2 hours on Tuesday night, it was nice to forget the disappointment of this season and watch an entertaining basketball game with a Heels team that clearly cared and an atmosphere in Carmichael that could only be described as special. I know the opponent was from the CAA, not the Big East or Big Ten, but they were up for that game, too, and the Heels found a way. I'm not going to claim that it makes up for the rest of the season, but it was fun to be a fan again, at least.

In other news, Ohio was the 9 seed in the MAC tournament. And they pounded Georgetown. All hail the mighty Big East.

The Official Big Bob Bracket

Hello friends.

I'm not sure how many of you there are left out there.

After a full month off from the blog, to let the reality of the disappointment of my beloved Heels' 09/10 season set in, I believe I'm ready to restart my participation in this blog. If for no other reason than I am tired of the lead line every time I check it be "Why Carolina Can Beat Duke." Whoops.

But we're kicking off my renewed commitment on the greatest day of the sports year- the first day of the NCAA Tournament. And we're doing so with the unveiling of my bracket. Unfortunately, we don't have Andy Katz broadcasting from my living room, but it's probably only one small step below President Obama's in terms of hype. Without further adieu, here are my picks from the Sweet 16 on:

Midwest Region:

In the top matchup, I have Michigan State over Kansas. This is easily the gutsiest pick of my bracket, and I made it for two reasons: first, I am overreacting to picking MSU to lose in the 2nd round last year and then watching them make a run to the finals (before getting POUNDED), and second, the Midwest is just brutal, and I don't see chalk making it through from such a difficult bracket. Finally, it should be noted that all season long I have believed that this season reminded the most of 2006, when there was no dominant team and Florida ended up coming from off the radar to win it all (and George Mason made the Final Four). Given that, I tried to pick upsets whenever I could. This is one of those times.

In the other sweet 16, I have chalk (go figure) with Ohio State over Georgetown. I'm not really a big Ohio State guy this season, but I do think Evan Turner could be an even tougher matchup in the Dance because teams don't have enough time to prepare for the unique player that he is. This would be especially true in the Elite 8, with only 2 days to prepare, where I have Ohio State ending Sparty's run and advancing to the Final Four.

Other notable upsets: none. Big sweet life there. Right after I talk about wanting to pick upsets, I look at my bracket and it's 1-8 in the second round. Wow.

West Region:

I do have some upsets here. In the first Sweet 16 game, I have Syracuse over UTEP. Everyone picks a 12-5 upset every year (at least one), and I tend to gravitate toward picking against mid-major 5 seeds, like Butler here. I also have Murray State over Vanderbilt (I have NO confidence in Vandy for reasons that are yet unclear), which leads to UTEP in the Sweet 16. There, I have them losing to Syracuse. Not a shocking pick, but I'm jumping on the 'Cuse bandwagon for reasons that are similar to what I said about Turner above- their 2-3 zone, when executed as well as this team does this season, is a bear to prepare for and should be tough in the NCAA tournament format.

In the bottom, I have BYU getting through over Pittsburgh. I like BYU as a sneaky 7, and I think K State is my least favorite 2. I just don't know what they've done this year other than win a lot of non-marquee games and then get blown out by Kansas twice. In any other year, I don't see them being any higher than a 5. Hence, BYU through over them, and then over Pitt because of the same upset principle I stated above. Plus I was feeling some Joseph Smith love there.

Once in the Elite 8, I have Syracuse ending BYU's run. And I'm not done with Syracuse yet.

Other notable upsets: Murray State over Vandy, as stated above.

East Region:

The top half has easily my favorite first round matchup- Texas-Wake. What a game. This game could finish with absolutely any score- any at all- and it wouldn't shock me. Add to that that if Texas finally decides to play like it's early January again, they certainly have the horses to knock off Kentucky. No doubt.

But anyways, I do have Kentucky advancing to face Cornell, which will use excellent outside shooting and a Davidson-like mojo to advance over a really underwhelming 4/5 combo in Wisconsin and Temple. Once in the Sweet 16, however, Big Blue advances there.

On the bottom half, I have Marquette getting through to the Sweet 16 but losing there to West Virginia. I'm not really a huge West Virginia fan in the tournament, because if you look at recent history the winner of the Big East Tournament has usually come up short of their seeding, but I couldn't find a spot to knock them off.

That is, until the Elite 8, when they'll lose to Kentucky. A lot of people don't like the Wildcats this season, but I do. Sure, they're inexperienced, but that didn't seem to hurt them when they were going 32-2. And the fact is that John Wall is the most difficult player to guard in the country, and the 2nd toughest may be a trying DeMarcus Cousins. And I'm banking on the fact that Cousins may actually try for 6 games in a row. Which would be downright scary.

Other notable upsets: none. I do have Clemson winning a game, which is completely against my better judgment. But Purnell has to win a tourney game eventually.

South Region

Time is running out on this post, so we're going to have to move quickly. In the top half, I have Duke over Texas A&M. I thought long and hard about taking the Aggies, but in the end I didn't have the faith, and I do think that this is Duke's best team since 2005, and they're well positioned for at least an Elite 8 run.

On the other side, I have Villanova over Notre Dame. I know a lot of people are on the Baylor bandwagon, but I'm not. I don't know what Baylor has done to get me on their bandwagon, other than maybe beating Texas (not difficult). Instead, I will be on the 'Gody bandwagon. Until the Sweet 16, when I will switch to Scottie Reynolds.

In the Elite 8, I have Nova over Duke. I know the Wildcats have dropped 5 of 7, but if they can get through the early rounds, I really like their veteran backcourt, especially Reynolds, to take over and get them back to the Final Four. Especially against Duke, whom they pounded last year.

Other notable upsets: Siena over Purdue. If you even call that an upset.

Final Four:

Syracuse over Ohio State.

Kentucky over Villanova.

And I have Kentucky winning it all. I just like John Wall, and my gut really tells me that this is his year and it's Big Blue's year to return to the national stage. Calipari has been so close before, it's only a matter of time before he gets that ring (and then it's only a matter of time before the NCAA takes it away from him). I think the Wall/Cousins combo will get it done for him.

Why Carolina Can Beat Duke

And it doesn't have anything to do with the fact that "it's a rivalry game, and anything can happen."

But here are the top 5 reasons why Carolina could beat Duke tomorrow night:

1) Interior matchup. There's no question that the play of Ed Davis has been a large part of this recent losing streak. Perhaps it was us as fans putting too high expectations on him, but he just hasn't proven that he can take over games as though I thought he could at the beginning of this season. However, if you look historically (admittedly, the last few games it's been even worse than this) Davis has struggled against more physical post men, and specifically post players who assert themselves physically on the offensive end of the court (Gani Lawal, Trevor Booker and the Texas frontline come immediately to mind). I remember one play in the Georgia Tech game in which Lawal received the ball on the block and just backed Davis down, banged him, and separated for an easy 5-footer. That kind of physical offensive play takes away Davis' shotblocking ability and I think hurts him offensively as well, by making him work harder on D. Although this Duke team counts many strengths, one of them is not a physical frontline. Lance Thomas, the Plumlee brothers, and Greg Zoubek have been solid, but they are not as physically imposing as many others in the ACC, and perhaps more importantly they are not real offensive threats, especially in the paint. This should allow Davis to be a little bit more free on defense to block shots, as well as to protect against some of the defensive wear that can rob a post player of aggressive offense.

2) Recent history. Simply put, there is certainly a psychological edge that a team receives from having had great recent success against another squad. If you don't believe me, simply look back at the Michigan State game earlier this year. The Spartans should have had all the motivation in the world to be the better team that night, but just like last year they got hit in the mouth early and never recovered. The same thing could happen tomorrow against Duke. If Billy Graves comes out tomorrow raining 3's early, then doubt could easily start to creep in for the Blue Devils, who have no current players with a winning record in this rivalry. Duke, after all, has all the pressure on them in this game. The rivalry has tilted hard toward Chapel Hill the last 5 years, and this is their chance to take it back, as well as a critical game for them in maintaining a tie with Maryland and a game lead on surging Wake Forest in the conference race.

3) John Henson. About two weeks ago, I was ready to write off John Henson as a work in progress who would need a summer working out in Chapel Hill to really get up to speed with the college game. But the last two games, he has shown brief (very brief) glimpses of why he was so highly recruited coming out of high school. More than perhaps any other player on this team, I think a major problem for Henson has been lack of confidence, and I think he has gained a lot in the past 2 games. At some point, I promise you that he's going to have a breakout game that makes people realize why we were all so high on him. Who says it can't be against Duke?

4) Roy. One of the things that I've been amazed by over this streak has been how frustrated Roy has been in his postgame press conferences. I know that Found didn't like his quotes, and at first I didn't either, but for the sake of needing 5 reasons why we could win this game I'm going to offer a different perspective. As fans, I think one of the major frustrations has always been that at times we seem to care much more about a loss than the players and coaches do. I can remember many times as a fan being furious after a loss only to hear the coach talk about how great of an effort the other team put forth. That does not appear to be the case with Roy. He feels these losses, and I think what he's been saying is just a reflection of that. For better or worse, Roy has always been purely honest, and I think what you're seeing now is honest frustration, frustration like a fan feels. Roy is a Carolina fan just like we are, and he doesn't like losing. The main difference for him is that he actually can do something about it, and at some point, I firmly think that Roy is going to turn that frustration into good. That time could be tomorrow night against Duke.

5) We are a desperate, talented team. This is my biggest reason why I think the Heels can pull it off. Throughout all sports, one of the most difficult opponents has always been and will always be the talented, desperate team. UNC is certainly that right now. I think our season is absolutely riding on this game. If we lose to Duke to fall to 2-7, this season is lost, and the losses will build to a point where effort and confidence-wise we just can't dig out. Some would argue that we're there already, but beating Duke when you're a Tar Heel can be a season-saver. If this team can find a way to win tomorrow, not only does their season have hope, but it ALREADY has success. At least they beat Duke. And if you don't think that the players realize that, I think you're wrong. College athletes know rivalries and they believe in them, for the most part. And the same goes for the fans. You can beat that the Dean E Smith Center will be rocking tomorrow out of desperation for something good to happen with this team. And if I were a top-10 ranked Duke team with all the pressure on them to win this game, I don't think I'd want to walk into that kind of desperation.

6) Bonus reason: Hansbrough gets his jersey retired. And that dude OWNS Duke. 6-2 in his career. You think he's going to lose now?

Final pick: Heels 82, Duke 79. Call me Lou Holtz if you want. But we'll see what you say tomorrow night.

Quick postgame Super Bowl thought

One think I like about Simmons is that he always has an athlete's big picture in mind when he watches them; he always talks about what a win or loss can do for a guy on the all-time list. He makes it far more cut-and-dry than I think it is, "If Kobe wins another title, he vaults up 7 spots" for example. But that was what I was thinking the whole game about Peyton Manning.

If Manning wins that game, not only does he run away with the title of best QB on the planet right now, he starts making an argument for being included in the Montana, Elway, Marino, Favre class of best QBs ever. More than just having two rings, the ring he would have this season would come essentially solely because of him. He's the first ever player-coach in the NFL I can remember (used to be popular in the NBA), and when the Colts went for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter, he didn't so much as look at Jim Caldwell. He just decided they were going for it and called a play. And they got it.

It's likely he's gonna get a lot of crap over the next week for the pick for a TD that he threw, the play that essentially decided the game. And he deserves some of it. But let's not forget he played an almost flawless game up until that point, and an almost flawless season up until the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl.

Problem is, he needs that ring to vault himself up the Pantheon of all-time QBs. Nothing else matters except getting that second title. His greatness was matched, if not surpassed, by Drew Brees in that game.

If he next season is just like his last, except that it ends with a Super Bowl win...then he's right back up there on the all-time list. But I can't help but think that this was a chance to move himself several places up the big board and that the interception cost him that opportunity. I don't think he's a choker. I don't think he's "un-clutch." I don't think he shrinks on the big stage. But the hardest part, for him, will be that it will be a full year before he has another shot to prove it.