Upsets

Duke and Butler are playing for the national championship tonight. Pause for a moment. Let that sink in.

Duke and Butler. Any of you out there have that one in your bracket? I, for one, did not. I actually had neither one in the Final Four, and I didn't even have Butler in the 2nd round. Yoltzy.

This isn't your daddy's Duke team either. This is a team that hadn't beaten better than a 5 seed in 8 years and didn't have a single player on the team that had participated in an Elite Eight, let alone a Final Four.

So how did we end up here? Well, in a word, upsets. Upsets have been everywhere this tournament ever since Ali Farokhmanesh decided to hit the ballsiest 3 in roughly a decade to sink the overall number 1 and media pick, Kansas. Since then, we've watched Syracuse fold up in the Sweet 16, John Wall disappear in the Elite 8 (though losing to West Virginia can't be an upset), and Tennessee win despite having most of its team participate in a different kind of court this season instead. Crazy, random stuff has happened in this tournament. And, as a result, we're left with a crazy, random final.

Duke vs Butler. By the way, it should be known that despite my own feelings on Duke none of that previous paragraph was meant to denegrade what those two teams have done. They've absolutely been the most consistent teams over 3 weeks and they deserve to be here.

But, still, Duke-Butler?

Wow.

So how can Butler win and pull off the greatest NC game upset since 'Nova in 1985? Well, for me there is one key to beating Duke. It's not getting out on their 3-point shooters, though that will help. It's not breaking their man-to-man, though that would too. It's not even picking one of the Big Three to shut down and make someone else step up; that actually probably won't work- ask Baylor. The key for Butler tonight will be whether or not they can keep Brian "Moving Screen" Zoubek off the offensive glass. Duke absolutely KILLS you with offensive rebound/kick out combo punches which end with Scheyer nailing a 3. Roll back the West Virginia tape, and you'll notice that Zou doesn't even look to score most of the time, he just looks for something thin and white flashing around the 3 point line and fires it out there. Inevitably, with the defense focused on boxing out, Scheyer is open and free to rain daggers down from out there. It's brutal.

If they can keep Duke off the offensive glass, I really believe they'll win. I think that Duke's offense will struggle if they can't get second chance points. Their Big Three have just logged too many minutes to work that hard on the offensive end. Although Scheyer will contort his face about 1000 ways trying.

I, for one, am skeptical that the Bulldogs can do it. But this should come as no surprise to anyone, since I was skeptical they could beat UTEP. Either way, I'll be interested in watching.

Here's to random national championship games. Check back later this week for a recap of the tournament as well as thoughts on the end to the Heels' season and the Masters. Busy week.