Ed Davis announced a week ago or so that he's leaving college for the NBA Draft. At the time, I expected a rash of Carolina fans jumping off of cliffs about next year because of this. Surprisingly for me, the reaction- at least what I read- was that this wouldn't matter all that much as far as next season's final record goes.
Frankly, I agree. Here are 3 good reasons why Ed Davis playing in the NBA won't hurt the Heels next year. In fact, I would go so far as to say that we'll be better off without Davis.
1. Davis doesn't fit in well as a key in the Heels' offense. A lot of folks like to focus on Roy's primary and secondary breaks as the key to UNC scoring points, but there's a second part that is equally, if not more, important. Going back to Dean Smith, UNC has needed a post player through whom they could run their offense. What Smith, and now Williams after him, prefer to do is work the halfcourt offense through the post to create the best shot. This requires that the Heels have a post player that is an elite scorer, who they can to in crunch time. Don't believe me? Look at the best Heels teams of the past 20 years. All have elite post players- Montross, Rasheed, Jamison, Sean May, and Tyler Hansbrough. Ed Davis, for all of his talents, is not that. His offensive game is spotty at best, and while he may be a great rebounder and shot-blocker, I think those assets are more easily replaced with guys like John Henson. Tyler Zeller, on the other hand, if he can stay healthy, I believe has a chance to become that kind of go-to post scorer.
2. If Davis came back, there would be too many post guys. A lot of Carolina fans like to complain about Roy using Henson at the 3 last season, but they forget easily that at the time it was almost necessary. At the beginning of this season, Carolina had 6 post players (if we include Henson as one). That's too many. There's just no way to keep all those guys happy, or (more importantly) for the team to get into any kind of game rhythm when they're trying to cycle 5-6 guys through 2 post positions. Next year, without Davis, there will be 4, a much more ideal number, and I think it will show in the team's offensive rhythm.
3. Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, and Kendall Marshall. At the end of the day, these 3 guys are going to be the key to whether or not UNC returns to contention in the ACC next season. I've said many, many times that the biggest problem this team had is that in close games in the 2nd half (of which UNC lost more than you might remember), it was just so hard to create a good shot. As we covered above, Davis didn't and won't help that. Barnes and Bullock, in my opinion, are going to be the key because they both come in with the reputation of being able to create their own shot, a talent that was missing from this year's team. Combine that with the improved point guard play of having Marshall and Drew instead of Drew and Strickland (and then sliding Strickland over to the 2 spot, and giving him some outlet passes on fast breaks but not making him run a halfcourt offense), and I think the Heels will be much improved next year. But I don't think it would have had anything to do with Davis. Sorry, Easy Ed. Just the facts.
Also, Heels fans, take solace in this- at least you're not Wake Forest. The Deacons just fired a coach who earned the school's first NCAA Tournament win since Chris Paul and replaced him with Jeff Bzedlik. Or however you spell it.
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