Time to watch college football in earnest, boys, because we're about 4 days from having none for 7 months... Yzgoltz.
Also, Byrum has almost caught me in the Bowl Pick-off. Time to step it up...
Fiesta Bowl, Jan 4th, Boise State vs TCU (-7.5)
This is the sad part about this game- these 2 teams are ranked #4 and #6, and yet I know next to nothing about either team to feel smart about picking who's going to win. They just don't play enough prime-time games, although Boise does do a good job of taking the random Tuesday night 8 PM ESPN games. However, I will add that I think GENERALLY that TCU is the more battle-tested squad here, if for no other reason that the Mountain West contains some actually decent teams, rather than the WAC, which is for the most part terrible. So I think that they're going to win this game, but I don't know if there are many teams in the country who could feel too comfortable spotting the Broncos 7.5 points. I'll take Boise to cover. Big Bob's pick: Boise State.
Orange Bowl, Jan 5th, Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa
These 3 things I know are true: 1) I love to pick against the Big Ten 2) I'd LOVE for the ACC to get a winning streak going in BCS bowl games 3) I'm not all that impressed with Iowa as an elite college football team. This points to me picking the Ramblin' Wreck, but I just can't get the Jackets' epic pounding by LSU in last season's Peach Bowl out of my head. When you get down to it, any coach worth his salt should love the opportunity to play Georgia Tech with a month to prepare. That's far too long to prepare for defending 3 offensive plays. And I believe Kirk Ferentz is worth his salt. Big Bob's pick: Iowa.
GMAC Bowl, Jan 6th, Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy
What is this game doing here? What did the GMAC bowl do to get this time slot? Central Michigan's QB is nasty, although I can't remember his name. Good enough for me. Big Bob's pick: Central Michigan.
Updated records:
Found: 14-11
Oltzy: 10-15
Byrum: 8-17
Monday, January 4, 2010
College Football Bowl Pick-off, Round Seven
Watching the (generally awful) slate of NFL games yesterday, which featured teams not trying, unnecessary injuries, few compelling matchups and generally not much excitement....makes me glad for college football.
In college, there's always incentive to win. You don't clinch anything and then rest on your laurels. You don't tank for a higher draft pick. Every win brings a shot at a better bowl, a conference title, or just some damn bragging rights. Every week from week one to the bowls is competitive - and there aren't postseason rematches of games that just happened a week earlier.
Here's to you, college pigskin. Go Hawkeyes.
Monday: Fiesta Bowl - TCU (-7.5) vs Boise State
Don't tell me you're not into this game, even if 95 percent of America couldn't name more than a player or two on either team. These teams will both come to play, cause there's something pretty sweet about finishing a season undefeated regardless of whether it comes with a national title or not. Surely TCU would like a shot at a major conference team, but in order to complete their argument, they'd have to win this game. A loss and your yelling falls silent. I love that this game could end up 48-42 and I hate that the spread is so huge. But all season long TCU has played like a team possessed and it's not time to stop now. Found's pick: TCU
Tuesday: Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa
I'll admit that this matchup isn't very sexy, doesn't come with a lot of history and might not draw a lot of casual viewers. But for just some quality, old-school, tough and classic football, you can't get much better than this. Most people want to talk about whether Iowa can stop Tech's triple-option, how much time they have to prepare for it and yada yada. My concern, or key to the game, is whether Ricky Stanzi's return means the Iowa offense can score enough to win. Remember that Iowa has suffered injuries to its top four running backs, doesn't really have a go-to wide receiver and basically can't score points in a hurry if it needs to. So even if the defense holds Georgia Tech to 17 points...will that be enough? Well it's been an amazing ride so far, probably my favorite of any season during my lifetime, and it might as well have one more stop. Found's pick: Hawkeyes
Wednesday: GMAC Bowl - Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy
I've already spilled enough ink on the first two games that this one needs to be short and sweet. Love the offense that this bowl could provide, hesitant about C. Mich playing with an interim coach but I think Dan LeFevour caps a tremendous college career in style. Found's pick: Central Michigan
In college, there's always incentive to win. You don't clinch anything and then rest on your laurels. You don't tank for a higher draft pick. Every win brings a shot at a better bowl, a conference title, or just some damn bragging rights. Every week from week one to the bowls is competitive - and there aren't postseason rematches of games that just happened a week earlier.
Here's to you, college pigskin. Go Hawkeyes.
Monday: Fiesta Bowl - TCU (-7.5) vs Boise State
Don't tell me you're not into this game, even if 95 percent of America couldn't name more than a player or two on either team. These teams will both come to play, cause there's something pretty sweet about finishing a season undefeated regardless of whether it comes with a national title or not. Surely TCU would like a shot at a major conference team, but in order to complete their argument, they'd have to win this game. A loss and your yelling falls silent. I love that this game could end up 48-42 and I hate that the spread is so huge. But all season long TCU has played like a team possessed and it's not time to stop now. Found's pick: TCU
Tuesday: Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa
I'll admit that this matchup isn't very sexy, doesn't come with a lot of history and might not draw a lot of casual viewers. But for just some quality, old-school, tough and classic football, you can't get much better than this. Most people want to talk about whether Iowa can stop Tech's triple-option, how much time they have to prepare for it and yada yada. My concern, or key to the game, is whether Ricky Stanzi's return means the Iowa offense can score enough to win. Remember that Iowa has suffered injuries to its top four running backs, doesn't really have a go-to wide receiver and basically can't score points in a hurry if it needs to. So even if the defense holds Georgia Tech to 17 points...will that be enough? Well it's been an amazing ride so far, probably my favorite of any season during my lifetime, and it might as well have one more stop. Found's pick: Hawkeyes
Wednesday: GMAC Bowl - Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy
I've already spilled enough ink on the first two games that this one needs to be short and sweet. Love the offense that this bowl could provide, hesitant about C. Mich playing with an interim coach but I think Dan LeFevour caps a tremendous college career in style. Found's pick: Central Michigan
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Reviewing the Butch Era So Far
In response to Found's earlier post, here are some quick, certainly belated, thoughts on the end of year 3 of Butch Davis at UNC:
- I think there's a lot to be said for the pessimist vs. optimist battle that Found put out there. It really has been a bit of a two-sided run for BD so far in Chapel Hill. On the one hand, there is a lot to be excited about- consecutive bowl appearances, some big-time wins (ND, Va Tech in Blacksburg, 3-0 vs Miami, etc), and a significant stint in the top 25 each of the past 2 seasons. But just as easily there are some question marks- 0-2 in bowl games, 0-6 against NC State and Virginia. In the end, I thought Butch was a touch ahead of my personal expectations last season, but thought things were a little behind my expectations for this season. While there's no doubt that the talent level has increased, there were some pretty disappointing lows this year that are tough to forget.
- There are some who will be happy if Carolina simply wins 7-9 games every season and is an annual participant in bowls, as BC has been for the past decade or perhaps UVa under George Welsh some time back. While some might look at this as defeatist, I'm not quite to that point, but I do think our expectations should be a little bit higher given the amount of money we are now investing in the program. I'm still struggling with the idea of UNC as a true national contender, as Butch has said he expects us to be, but I think contending for 10 wins and an occasional conference championship is certainly something we should hope for. And we're obviously not quite to that goal yet, although I think it would be foolish to expect that after just 3 seasons.
- However, with that said I really think that next year will be a true make-or-break season as far as whether we can turn the program under this coaching staff. Recruiting has dried up just a little bit from the initial success, and even the schedule reflects what should be increased expectations next season, with the season opener against LSU in the Georgia Dome. Also, here is a decent article reflecting just what the Heels have returning and how dangerous they could be. Some may laugh at us for doing this, but I think a reasonable expectation should be to seriously contend for at least a division title next season. If we go 8-5 again, I worry that the newness of Butch at UNC may begin to wear off, and we may struggle to turn that corner again in the future. Perhaps I'm being too short-sighted, but I really feel this is the chance. A lot is set up well for success in 2010 for the Heels football program. I'm already excited about that chance.
- Byrum, any thoughts on this?
Happy New Year
Sorry about the lack of posting yesterday. But I finally figured out what is worse than my ability to pick bowl games - and that is food poisoning. I picked up a nasty case of it at dinner on NYE, and I have been in epic pain and nausea for the last 36 hours. I'm just starting to recover, so I'm sorry for not posting until now - I just woke up. Anyways, on to my picks:
South Florida -6.5 over N. Illinois
I like USF's quarterback, BJ Daniels. He is absurdly athletic and makes a lot of plays after they break down. The Bulls have covered for me a couple times this year, so I'm gonna ride them again. Long live Tampa.
South Carolina -4.5 over UCONN
I don't have a lot of faith in South Carolina, but I have even less faith in UCONN to score points in this one. The Huskies' offense is pretty one-dimensional, and the Gamecocks are usually stout against the run. UCONN has made a habit of keeping games close this year, but I think South Carolina wins this one comfortably. I see 24-7.
Oklahoma St +2.5 over Ole Miss
OK State should have their starting RB and QB healthy for this game, which is huge. Jevan Snead never materialized into the QB that Rebel fans expected this season, but Dexter McCluster came on strong late in the year. I think this will be an entertaining game. I'm taking OK State because I trust Zac Robinson more than Snead.
East Carolina +7.5 over Arkansas
I'm biased towards the Pirates in this one - my brother and my mom both went to school there. Everyone seems to assume that Ryan Mallett will light it up and the Razorbacks will run away with this one. However, a lot of people assumed the same thing about Case Keenum and Houston a few weeks ago in the Conference USA title game. Somehow, I think ECU keeps it close here, and they might even pull the upset. Arrrgh!!!!
Texas Tech -7.5 over Michigan State
I don't know what to make of this game. Texas Tech is obviously playing without its coach and offensive coordinator, but Michigan State had ELEVEN players suspended for a brawl in a dorm a month ago. At the end of the day, Michigan State was terrible this year, and Texas Tech was solid. So I'll lay the points here. On a side note, I think it is AWESOME that Mike Leach has totally stuck to his guns during this debacle. He has refused to apologize and basically painted Craig James' family as a bunch of meddling, overprotective liars. I don't know who is telling the truth, but I definitely respect Leach's refusal to adhere to modern public relations standards.
I'm going to like back in the fetal position again. Food poisoning is worse than a bowl game in Canada...
South Florida -6.5 over N. Illinois
I like USF's quarterback, BJ Daniels. He is absurdly athletic and makes a lot of plays after they break down. The Bulls have covered for me a couple times this year, so I'm gonna ride them again. Long live Tampa.
South Carolina -4.5 over UCONN
I don't have a lot of faith in South Carolina, but I have even less faith in UCONN to score points in this one. The Huskies' offense is pretty one-dimensional, and the Gamecocks are usually stout against the run. UCONN has made a habit of keeping games close this year, but I think South Carolina wins this one comfortably. I see 24-7.
Oklahoma St +2.5 over Ole Miss
OK State should have their starting RB and QB healthy for this game, which is huge. Jevan Snead never materialized into the QB that Rebel fans expected this season, but Dexter McCluster came on strong late in the year. I think this will be an entertaining game. I'm taking OK State because I trust Zac Robinson more than Snead.
East Carolina +7.5 over Arkansas
I'm biased towards the Pirates in this one - my brother and my mom both went to school there. Everyone seems to assume that Ryan Mallett will light it up and the Razorbacks will run away with this one. However, a lot of people assumed the same thing about Case Keenum and Houston a few weeks ago in the Conference USA title game. Somehow, I think ECU keeps it close here, and they might even pull the upset. Arrrgh!!!!
Texas Tech -7.5 over Michigan State
I don't know what to make of this game. Texas Tech is obviously playing without its coach and offensive coordinator, but Michigan State had ELEVEN players suspended for a brawl in a dorm a month ago. At the end of the day, Michigan State was terrible this year, and Texas Tech was solid. So I'll lay the points here. On a side note, I think it is AWESOME that Mike Leach has totally stuck to his guns during this debacle. He has refused to apologize and basically painted Craig James' family as a bunch of meddling, overprotective liars. I don't know who is telling the truth, but I definitely respect Leach's refusal to adhere to modern public relations standards.
I'm going to like back in the fetal position again. Food poisoning is worse than a bowl game in Canada...
College Football Bowl Pick-off, Round Six
This difference in bowl matchups from Jan. 1 to Jan. 2 is as much of a letdown as John Henson's young career for the Tar Heels has been. Yeesh
International Bowl, South Florida (-6.5) vs Northern Illinois
I'll say this for Northern Illinois, they probably want to be at this bowl in Toronto a lot more than the team from Tampa wants to be in Canada on Jan. 2. And since bowl games largely depend simply on who wants to play harder than the other team, it's tempting to go with N. Illinois here. But c'mon, it's Northern Illinois and South Florida probably out-talents them across the board. George Selvie could have a Suh-like performance. Found's pick: South Florida
Papajohn's.com Bowl, South Carolina (-4.5) vs Connecticut
Screw it, South Carolina is the better team here but UConn has just had the knack for keeping games close of late, win or lose. Plus Birmingham, Alabama (Richard Johanson) is a much better place to be right now than central Connecticut, so the Huskies will be psyched to be there. Found's pick: Connecticut
Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State
Not sure why Ok State is getting points in this game...the Cowboys are the ranked team with the better record. Probably has something to do with SEC love. Good matchup though, interesting plotlines and some recognizable names in this game. The team that doesn't get caught staring around new Cowboys Stadium in awe and just plays its game probably wins. Ole Miss' top receiver is named Hodge, which obviously complicates this pick. The points don't really help, so you might as well pick the outright winner. Found's pick: Oklahoma State
Liberty Bowl, Arkansas (-7.5) vs East Carolina
Much respect to what Skip Holtz has done with ECU's program; he's certainly proven they have the ability to knock off a major conference team and a good major conference team too. Arkansas is a good major conference team but with plenty of prep time, they won't succumb to the Pirates. Found's pick: Razorbacks
Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech (-7.5) vs Michigan State
This would have been a tough one to pick before all the crap went down at Texas Tech, but now it's a little too easy. My favorite game of the year was Iowa-Michigan State and if the Spartans play just as solid and Big Ten-esque in that one, they'll be fine here. Found's pick: Sparty
International Bowl, South Florida (-6.5) vs Northern Illinois
I'll say this for Northern Illinois, they probably want to be at this bowl in Toronto a lot more than the team from Tampa wants to be in Canada on Jan. 2. And since bowl games largely depend simply on who wants to play harder than the other team, it's tempting to go with N. Illinois here. But c'mon, it's Northern Illinois and South Florida probably out-talents them across the board. George Selvie could have a Suh-like performance. Found's pick: South Florida
Papajohn's.com Bowl, South Carolina (-4.5) vs Connecticut
Screw it, South Carolina is the better team here but UConn has just had the knack for keeping games close of late, win or lose. Plus Birmingham, Alabama (Richard Johanson) is a much better place to be right now than central Connecticut, so the Huskies will be psyched to be there. Found's pick: Connecticut
Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State
Not sure why Ok State is getting points in this game...the Cowboys are the ranked team with the better record. Probably has something to do with SEC love. Good matchup though, interesting plotlines and some recognizable names in this game. The team that doesn't get caught staring around new Cowboys Stadium in awe and just plays its game probably wins. Ole Miss' top receiver is named Hodge, which obviously complicates this pick. The points don't really help, so you might as well pick the outright winner. Found's pick: Oklahoma State
Liberty Bowl, Arkansas (-7.5) vs East Carolina
Much respect to what Skip Holtz has done with ECU's program; he's certainly proven they have the ability to knock off a major conference team and a good major conference team too. Arkansas is a good major conference team but with plenty of prep time, they won't succumb to the Pirates. Found's pick: Razorbacks
Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech (-7.5) vs Michigan State
This would have been a tough one to pick before all the crap went down at Texas Tech, but now it's a little too easy. My favorite game of the year was Iowa-Michigan State and if the Spartans play just as solid and Big Ten-esque in that one, they'll be fine here. Found's pick: Sparty
Jan 2nd Bowl picks
So none of us could get up early enough on New Year's Day to post our picks before the games began. Big SL there.
As for the New Year's bowl action, I thought the two biggest statements (no surprise here) were clearly Ohio State and Florida. The Bucks returned to the big stage with a Rose Bowl victory over Oregon that included Terrelle Pryor's first collegiate game looking like a real quarterback (including a man-sized back shoulder throw to ice it for the 26-17 touchdown- sick throw). Florida, on the other hand, showed the rest of the country that maybe, just maybe, the BCS got this one right by pounding overmatched Cincinnati. There are far more questions than answers for Florida going forward, but for now they can enjoy a dominant victory.
Now, on to the next round:
International Bowl, South Florida (-6.5) vs Northern Illinois
You have to love this. We give Canada a college football bowl and then send them this game. Why isn't it played on like December 20th? Anyhow, South Florida successfully got themselves overranked with another strong start this year only to lose 5 of 6 down the stretch. It's getting ridiculous how many times they do that. Still, I think they can probably take NIU. Big Bob's pick: South Florida.
Papajohn's.com Bowl, South Carolina (-4.5) vs Connecticut
How much longer do you think Steve Spurrier can hold on at South Carolina? After years of contending for the SEC at Florida, he can't be satisfied with continually going 7-5. In this game, I think clearly the Gamecocks have the better talent, but I really like Randy Edsall and his team has really bounced back from an incredible tragedy to win some big games down the stretch and get to the postseason. I think the difference here is the South Carolina defense, which should be able to bottle up the Huskies' run attack. Big Bob's pick: South Carolina.
Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State
It's quite fitting that Ole Miss and OK State meet in a bowl game; both started the season with huge expectations and a top 10 ranking, but ultimately struggled down the stretch to live up to that. Still, there's a lot of offensive talent on the field here, from Jevon Snead to Zac Robinson to Dexter McCluster. I could go either way here, especially since both teams laid eggs in the last game of the season. When in doubt, take the points. Big Bob's pick: Oklahoma State.
Liberty Bowl, Arkansas (-7.5) vs East Carolina
They're calling for me to board my flight home to NC, so I've got to hurry. I would love nothing more than to pick ECU here, especially with the touchdown spread, but I just don't see it. If UNC can pound the Pirates, Ryan Mallette definitely can. Big Bob's pick: Arkansas
Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech (-7.5) vs Michigan State
The Big Ten has been on a roll, and who knows what's going on in Lubbock. This one seems too easy. Give me those points. Big Bob's pick: Sparty.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Happy 2010
And welcome to the first of Oltzy's picks for the New Year.
Outback Bowl, Auburn (-7.5) vs Northwestern
I don't know anything about Northwestern, but as a general rule I'm not taking them to beat an SEC team. The touchdown spread, however, makes it interesting. However, I think Auburn has enough motivation in this game to come out focused and ready, and I think Chizik really wants this game to continue to quiet his doubters from a year ago. Big Bob's pick: Auburn
Gator Bowl, West Virginia (-2.5) vs Florida State
This game is everything that is wrong with college bowls. NEITHER of these teams deserve to be in a Jan 1 bowl game ahead of others in their conference who were sent to lesser bowls. As for the game, FSU gave up 200+ yards on the ground to Carolina; I just don't see how they can stop Noel Devine, even if it is Bowden's last game. Big Bob's pick: West Virginia
Capital One Bowl, Penn State (-2.5) vs LSU
Seriously? LSU is getting points in this game? I love picking against the Big Ten under any circumstances, but this is too easy. Big Bob's pick: LSU
Rose Bowl, Oregon (-3.5) vs Ohio State
This is tough for me. I usually love to pick against Tressellball because I think it is far too conservative to beat other ranked teams, but here it may work. Oregon doesn't have too many players (or any) that have played on a stage like the Rose Bowl, and Tressell's game plan may just be the perfect way to entice the Ducks into enough mistakes to lose. Like, for example, punching players in the face. Big Bob's pick: Ohio State. Can't believe I just did that.
Sugar Bowl, Florida (-10.5) vs Cincinnati
This is a great bowl matchup because the outcome could really impact the seasons to come. If the Bearkitties come to N'Orleans and knock off the Gators, then it will give credence to both the Big East and "lesser-known" undefeated teams who are hoping for BCS Championship game births in the future. If Florida blows out Cincy, the opposite effect will occur. I really like Brian Kelly and all that he did with this team, but he's not there any more and I just don't see how the Bearcats keep this close. Ten points is a lot to give up in the Sugar Bowl, but I gotta do it. Big Bob's pick: Florida.
Outback Bowl, Auburn (-7.5) vs Northwestern
I don't know anything about Northwestern, but as a general rule I'm not taking them to beat an SEC team. The touchdown spread, however, makes it interesting. However, I think Auburn has enough motivation in this game to come out focused and ready, and I think Chizik really wants this game to continue to quiet his doubters from a year ago. Big Bob's pick: Auburn
Gator Bowl, West Virginia (-2.5) vs Florida State
This game is everything that is wrong with college bowls. NEITHER of these teams deserve to be in a Jan 1 bowl game ahead of others in their conference who were sent to lesser bowls. As for the game, FSU gave up 200+ yards on the ground to Carolina; I just don't see how they can stop Noel Devine, even if it is Bowden's last game. Big Bob's pick: West Virginia
Capital One Bowl, Penn State (-2.5) vs LSU
Seriously? LSU is getting points in this game? I love picking against the Big Ten under any circumstances, but this is too easy. Big Bob's pick: LSU
Rose Bowl, Oregon (-3.5) vs Ohio State
This is tough for me. I usually love to pick against Tressellball because I think it is far too conservative to beat other ranked teams, but here it may work. Oregon doesn't have too many players (or any) that have played on a stage like the Rose Bowl, and Tressell's game plan may just be the perfect way to entice the Ducks into enough mistakes to lose. Like, for example, punching players in the face. Big Bob's pick: Ohio State. Can't believe I just did that.
Sugar Bowl, Florida (-10.5) vs Cincinnati
This is a great bowl matchup because the outcome could really impact the seasons to come. If the Bearkitties come to N'Orleans and knock off the Gators, then it will give credence to both the Big East and "lesser-known" undefeated teams who are hoping for BCS Championship game births in the future. If Florida blows out Cincy, the opposite effect will occur. I really like Brian Kelly and all that he did with this team, but he's not there any more and I just don't see how the Bearcats keep this close. Ten points is a lot to give up in the Sugar Bowl, but I gotta do it. Big Bob's pick: Florida.
Updated Records:
Found: 12-8
Oltzy: 9-11
Byrum: 5-15
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)