Ed Davis Going Pro

Ed Davis announced a week ago or so that he's leaving college for the NBA Draft. At the time, I expected a rash of Carolina fans jumping off of cliffs about next year because of this. Surprisingly for me, the reaction- at least what I read- was that this wouldn't matter all that much as far as next season's final record goes.

Frankly, I agree. Here are 3 good reasons why Ed Davis playing in the NBA won't hurt the Heels next year. In fact, I would go so far as to say that we'll be better off without Davis.

1. Davis doesn't fit in well as a key in the Heels' offense. A lot of folks like to focus on Roy's primary and secondary breaks as the key to UNC scoring points, but there's a second part that is equally, if not more, important. Going back to Dean Smith, UNC has needed a post player through whom they could run their offense. What Smith, and now Williams after him, prefer to do is work the halfcourt offense through the post to create the best shot. This requires that the Heels have a post player that is an elite scorer, who they can to in crunch time. Don't believe me? Look at the best Heels teams of the past 20 years. All have elite post players- Montross, Rasheed, Jamison, Sean May, and Tyler Hansbrough. Ed Davis, for all of his talents, is not that. His offensive game is spotty at best, and while he may be a great rebounder and shot-blocker, I think those assets are more easily replaced with guys like John Henson. Tyler Zeller, on the other hand, if he can stay healthy, I believe has a chance to become that kind of go-to post scorer.

2. If Davis came back, there would be too many post guys. A lot of Carolina fans like to complain about Roy using Henson at the 3 last season, but they forget easily that at the time it was almost necessary. At the beginning of this season, Carolina had 6 post players (if we include Henson as one). That's too many. There's just no way to keep all those guys happy, or (more importantly) for the team to get into any kind of game rhythm when they're trying to cycle 5-6 guys through 2 post positions. Next year, without Davis, there will be 4, a much more ideal number, and I think it will show in the team's offensive rhythm.

3. Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, and Kendall Marshall. At the end of the day, these 3 guys are going to be the key to whether or not UNC returns to contention in the ACC next season. I've said many, many times that the biggest problem this team had is that in close games in the 2nd half (of which UNC lost more than you might remember), it was just so hard to create a good shot. As we covered above, Davis didn't and won't help that. Barnes and Bullock, in my opinion, are going to be the key because they both come in with the reputation of being able to create their own shot, a talent that was missing from this year's team. Combine that with the improved point guard play of having Marshall and Drew instead of Drew and Strickland (and then sliding Strickland over to the 2 spot, and giving him some outlet passes on fast breaks but not making him run a halfcourt offense), and I think the Heels will be much improved next year. But I don't think it would have had anything to do with Davis. Sorry, Easy Ed. Just the facts.

Also, Heels fans, take solace in this- at least you're not Wake Forest. The Deacons just fired a coach who earned the school's first NCAA Tournament win since Chris Paul and replaced him with Jeff Bzedlik. Or however you spell it.

You Have to Love Phil

You just do. For some reason, I know that some golf fans don't like him. I have no idea how this could possibly be. He wears a constant smile on his face, he high fives fans, he hugs his wife and kids after he wins tournaments, and he pulls off shots like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXbeMwLzMW8

Are you freaking serious? Who tries that shot? Phil has taken some heat over the years for his flamboyant way of playing golf (see: 2006, Winged Foot, 72nd hole, driver), but you have to respect his consistency. He has lost majors playing like this, and now he has won them doing so. The only difference is, this time Phil pulled that shot off in the middle of a bogey-free 67, which has to rank among the best clutch rounds I've seen.

How could you not love that guy? I mean, seriously? Can someone explain this to me? Apparently some "insiders" claim that he's cocky. Fine. He might be. But I'm not going to ignore overwhelming evidence to the contrary (see above) just for the sake of trying to be seen as an "insider."

Now, to G's point. On the surface, it sounds absurd to rank Phil among the best golfers of all time. But he has a point about the Masters. This win gives Phil 3 green jackets, which ranks behind only 3 players in history. I would say that at this point, his record at the other majors is probably a little too scant to rank him among the greatest of all time. However, what this win MIGHT do is make him the currently reigning king of Augusta National, even ahead of the Almighty Tiger himself. Phil has won 3 Masters since 2003; no one else, including El Tigre, has more than 1. I think that right now, in 2010, you might have to say that Phil's blend of shotmaking and large cajones might make him the best player at golf's most famous course, a place that traditionally rewards birdies as much as any major championship venue.

And who knows? At Pebble Beach, Phil's chances have to be high. If he raises that trophy, we may have to revisit this all-time question. Can't wait for that.

One for the ages

Was this year's Masters one of the best ever? Well what else had this...

-A HUGE storyline entering the tournament...the world's best golfer (maybe ever) returning to competition after a long hiatus

-Old guys making charming runs - Tom Watson, Fred Couples

-Young guns showing that they're going to be heard from - Anthony Kim

-A "best player to never have won a major" so close to shedding that tag - Lee Westwood

-Tiger in the hunt from start to finish, always begging the question "he might be a few back, but can he do it? Is now the time?"

-Masters history in Phil Mickelson making back-to-back eagles (only the third time that's ever happened)

-One of the most ridiculous cojones shots ever in the tournament - Mickelson from the straw onto the green from two hundo away

-Tremendous weather

-Tiger revealing his past character is still there ("God damn it Tiger") as he says he's getting back to his values

-A sap story with Mickelson getting the win while his wife undergoes treatment for breast cancer

...I honestly can't think of a Masters that compares. Now, there have been better Masters in some respects - more thrilling finishes, unique winners, dominating performances - but I'm not sure any of them had suck a package as this one.

And on a similar note, where do we rank Phil now among golf's all-time greats? Before you answer, consider this: only three golfers have more Masters titles than him, and those three are Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Tiger Woods. Wow.

Upsets

Duke and Butler are playing for the national championship tonight. Pause for a moment. Let that sink in.

Duke and Butler. Any of you out there have that one in your bracket? I, for one, did not. I actually had neither one in the Final Four, and I didn't even have Butler in the 2nd round. Yoltzy.

This isn't your daddy's Duke team either. This is a team that hadn't beaten better than a 5 seed in 8 years and didn't have a single player on the team that had participated in an Elite Eight, let alone a Final Four.

So how did we end up here? Well, in a word, upsets. Upsets have been everywhere this tournament ever since Ali Farokhmanesh decided to hit the ballsiest 3 in roughly a decade to sink the overall number 1 and media pick, Kansas. Since then, we've watched Syracuse fold up in the Sweet 16, John Wall disappear in the Elite 8 (though losing to West Virginia can't be an upset), and Tennessee win despite having most of its team participate in a different kind of court this season instead. Crazy, random stuff has happened in this tournament. And, as a result, we're left with a crazy, random final.

Duke vs Butler. By the way, it should be known that despite my own feelings on Duke none of that previous paragraph was meant to denegrade what those two teams have done. They've absolutely been the most consistent teams over 3 weeks and they deserve to be here.

But, still, Duke-Butler?

Wow.

So how can Butler win and pull off the greatest NC game upset since 'Nova in 1985? Well, for me there is one key to beating Duke. It's not getting out on their 3-point shooters, though that will help. It's not breaking their man-to-man, though that would too. It's not even picking one of the Big Three to shut down and make someone else step up; that actually probably won't work- ask Baylor. The key for Butler tonight will be whether or not they can keep Brian "Moving Screen" Zoubek off the offensive glass. Duke absolutely KILLS you with offensive rebound/kick out combo punches which end with Scheyer nailing a 3. Roll back the West Virginia tape, and you'll notice that Zou doesn't even look to score most of the time, he just looks for something thin and white flashing around the 3 point line and fires it out there. Inevitably, with the defense focused on boxing out, Scheyer is open and free to rain daggers down from out there. It's brutal.

If they can keep Duke off the offensive glass, I really believe they'll win. I think that Duke's offense will struggle if they can't get second chance points. Their Big Three have just logged too many minutes to work that hard on the offensive end. Although Scheyer will contort his face about 1000 ways trying.

I, for one, am skeptical that the Bulldogs can do it. But this should come as no surprise to anyone, since I was skeptical they could beat UTEP. Either way, I'll be interested in watching.

Here's to random national championship games. Check back later this week for a recap of the tournament as well as thoughts on the end to the Heels' season and the Masters. Busy week.

When a Champion isn't a Champion

The UNC-Mississippi State game in the second round of the NIT was probably the most enjoyable Heels game to watch all season (other contenders - beating Mich St at home; the first half of the Syracuse game; heading into Winston-Salem and venting some frustration).

Whether it's a good thing or bad thing that my team's best game came in the second round of the NIT, I'm not sure.

But now that they have three solid wins against decent competition in the NIT under their belt, these Heels need to lose. Soon. I don't care whether it's against Rhode Island in the semifinals or the Dayton/Illinois winner in the finals. But I don't want the Heels to win the NIT.

Why? Because one of the most valuable things in sports is the team that plays with a chip on its shoulder. And this team, next season, needs to have a gigantic one. Winning a bunch of games at the end of the season softens the pain, eases the sting and isn't nearly as powerful of a motivating tool as an abysmal end of the season (which the Heels had up until the NIT).

These guys aren't, and shouldn't feel like champions. They should be proud of what they've been able to do over the last few games and pleased with some signs of maturation from John Henson and LDII. But being proud toes the fine line between being pleased and satisfied.

I just want the losses, the bad press, the taunting and the disparaging comments about this year's team to fuel them in the offseason and into the next season. I need that to be the rage that powers their improvement. They need to be so sick of what this season was that they're determined to do what it takes to make sure nothing like that happens again.

It's fun that the Heels are still playing, that we can see Henson throw down ridiculous dunks, and that Will Graves might be improving his shot selection and that the young guards are making fewer mistakes. But the game I'm most concerned about is not UNC-Rhode Island on Tuesday in the NIT.

It's UNC against whoever they open the 2010-11 season against. Here's to beating Long Beach State by 45.

Overreactions

First, let me start by saying that my wife's Final Four was Cornell, Kansas, Gonzaga, and Baylor. And the first of those 4 teams to go out was Kansas. Hilarious.

But second, no sooner had the Panthers corralled the final rebound to shock the nation on Saturday night, but the reactions started pouring out all over ESPN, SI, and similar sites. Behold the parity of college basketball! The mid-major tag should be outlawed! There are no favorites anymore! College basketball will never be the same! (Don't believe the reaction was this strong? See here)

Okay. Let's take a deep breath here.

College basketball has not changed forever. There is not a new-found parity. No groundbreaking claims should be made based on this. It's one game, people. Shocking? Certainly. Perhaps one of the top 10 upsets that I personally have seen in the Dance. But there have been upsets before. There has been parity before. And all that really happened Saturday night was that Kansas didn't quite take the Panthers as seriously as they should have. Don't believe me? Well, with 2 minutes to go, when Bill Self finally woke up and realized his team might actually lose, he started pressing, his team started really getting after it defensively, and they came roaring back easily. They just ran out of time (and had one of the ballsiest shots I've ever seen go down against them). Imagine what would have happened if they had started trying like that on defense with 5 minutes left.

I also have a tough time getting behind the mid-majors as much as many in the national media. The fact of the matter for me has always been that, as much as I love the first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament, what gets lost a little in that shuffle is that it is still a tournament for the national championship. In the end, that's kind of the only thing that matters. If you don't have a chance to win the whole thing, I'm not sure you can say you're on the same pedestal as the guys who can. And until one of these "mid-majors" goes all the way and wins the national championship, I'm not going to give them the same respect that I give the big boys. I'm just not. Sorry, Chris Mack. The 4 Sweet 16's are impressive, no doubt, but they're not the Final Four. Or the whole thing.

In case you can't tell, I'm also against expansion for similar reasons. But we'll get to that after the season.

Quick thoughts on the games tonight:

1) Syracuse-Butler. I picked Syracuse to go to the finals in my bracket, but I didn't really like the pick. I didn't think the Orange had been playing all that well. Now, I love that pick. The Orange once again looked like their full potential against Gonzaga on Sunday. Butler is a solid team, but I don't think they can keep up with Wes Johnson and I think he has a big game in a 10-point 'Cuse victory.

2) West Virginia-Washington. Everyone loves Washington on the upset here, and for good reason. The Huskies are playing really well right now, and it's really hard to gauge how the Mountaineers will respond with Truck Bryant out. I think if Bryant had gotten hurt BEFORE the tournament, they'd have a better chance because they would have had time to get used to playing without him. But with just a few days to do so, I think they come out with too little confidence and Washington continues their run.

3) Xavier-Kansas State. Here are two teams I know next to nothing about. Obviously, as I picked both to lose in the 2nd round. I wish I could offer some legitimate thoughts, but I just can't. I'm sorry.

4) Cornell-Kentucky. Easily the matchup I'm most excited to see. So much so that I fully anticipate staying up to watch it even with an exam tomorrow. Cornell has looked awfully impressive, but you can't overstate the fact that they've played two RELATIVELY slower, less athletic teams in Temple and Wisconsin. The Big Red has never run into anything like John Wall or DeMarcus Cousins, and I would be particularly surprised if Cousins and Patrick Patterson don't have an absolute field day inside. If Cornell can hit some open 3's- and they will certainly get some open looks against the Kentucky D- then they can keep this close. But if they get cold early, it's going to get ugly.

Friday Tourney Thoughts

Holy Tournament, Batman.

I walked into the student lounge on Thursday afternoon to check scores during an afternoon reprieve, and walked right into one double overtime game and another that was about to the first overtime- between a 2 and a 15. And the rest of that day did not disappoint. Here are my top 3 thoughts from the first round, as well as the 3 I'm most looking forward to for tomorrow.

- Michigan State, whom for some reason I decided in my bracket was going to beat Kansas in the Sweet 16, proceeded to look terrible in a near-second-half collapse against New Mexico State tonight. The Spartans have been disappointing during the regular season largely because of their difficulties scoring the basketball, and tonight was no different, as they went for long stretches without getting any good shots, including seemingly missing 1 of every 2 free throws. Never count Tom Izzo out, certainly, but if I could go back and redo my bracket, I might think about it.

- It's always a little difficult to make generalities about the tournament in the first round, because the best teams are inevitably in blowouts against overmatched teams. But if you're looking for a darkhorse contender who proved something in the opening round, how about St Mary's or Butler? Butler drew a tough 12 seed in UTEP, which spent some time in the top 25 this season, but proceeded to turn a halftime deficit into an 18-pound thrashing. Likewise, St. Mary's shrugged off a lot of ESPN.com's darling pick Richmond with another impressive second half. I'm not implying that either of these teams is going all the way, but I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them dancing deep into the second weekend. Which, of course, is exactly why I picked both to lose in the first round.

- What has happened to Villanova? Scottie Reynolds put up a 1-14 effort during regulation and the Wildcats, top 3 in the country about a month ago, found themselves down 5 with a minute to play against 15-seed Robert Morris. 'Nova has a lot of experience back from last year's Final Four team, but they've been downright mediocre over the past 3 weeks, losing 5 of 7 before finally getting it together for about 6 minutes at the end of this game. I still feel OK about my pick with them, mostly because their draw is absurdly weak, but they've got to get it figured out soon or the aforementioned St. Mary's Gaels are going to give them everything they can handle tomorrow.

3 for Saturday:

- Wake Forest-Kentucky. Not sure if any of you stayed up to watch the Deacs knock off Texas in another OT game last night, but if not you missed this clutch shot from Ish Smith. If you haven't seen it, click on the link- it's pretty strong work. But the reason I like this matchup is that there are two legitimate reasons why Wake could pull the upset here- first, Kentucky is a streaky-at-best outside shooting team, and they depend on John Wall driving the basketball to create a good portion of their offense. Wake, however, employs a version of the "Pack Line" defense, which is built to keep drivers out of the lane- and they have the bigs inside to really make it work. UK is going to have to knock down some 3's, and they don't always do that. Second, Ish Smith is going to make John Wall work on the defensive end of the floor with his speed, and that could wear the star freshman down just enough to make him less effective on offense. It will be interesting to see how Wall handles playing against a guy with the transition speed of Ish. I still think Kentucky will win, and probably pretty handily, but if they struggle just a bit, Wake is the type of team that could give them trouble.

- Old Dominion-Baylor. If for no other reason, I just want to figure out what all the Baylor hype is about. I know that section is weak (see above, re: Villanova), but I just don't see the Bears as a Final Four team. Maybe they'll come out and thrash the Monarchs and show me why I should think otherwise. Then again, my wife picked them to win it all, and she's beating me in our bracket pool. Maybe I should reconsider...

- St. Mary's-Villanova. See above. The Gaels are playing with a ton of confidence right now, and you have to know that they firmly believe they're going to win this game. Villanova, on the other hand, is living on the opposite pole of the confidence scale. If you're a fan of the mid-majors, this is probably your number 1 game to watch tomorrow.

UNC

For the Carolina fans out there, I found this a nice article on Insidecarolina about the win over Bill & Mary on Tuesday night.

http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/954739.html

This really sums up my thoughts on that game nicely. For about 2 hours on Tuesday night, it was nice to forget the disappointment of this season and watch an entertaining basketball game with a Heels team that clearly cared and an atmosphere in Carmichael that could only be described as special. I know the opponent was from the CAA, not the Big East or Big Ten, but they were up for that game, too, and the Heels found a way. I'm not going to claim that it makes up for the rest of the season, but it was fun to be a fan again, at least.

In other news, Ohio was the 9 seed in the MAC tournament. And they pounded Georgetown. All hail the mighty Big East.

The Official Big Bob Bracket

Hello friends.

I'm not sure how many of you there are left out there.

After a full month off from the blog, to let the reality of the disappointment of my beloved Heels' 09/10 season set in, I believe I'm ready to restart my participation in this blog. If for no other reason than I am tired of the lead line every time I check it be "Why Carolina Can Beat Duke." Whoops.

But we're kicking off my renewed commitment on the greatest day of the sports year- the first day of the NCAA Tournament. And we're doing so with the unveiling of my bracket. Unfortunately, we don't have Andy Katz broadcasting from my living room, but it's probably only one small step below President Obama's in terms of hype. Without further adieu, here are my picks from the Sweet 16 on:

Midwest Region:

In the top matchup, I have Michigan State over Kansas. This is easily the gutsiest pick of my bracket, and I made it for two reasons: first, I am overreacting to picking MSU to lose in the 2nd round last year and then watching them make a run to the finals (before getting POUNDED), and second, the Midwest is just brutal, and I don't see chalk making it through from such a difficult bracket. Finally, it should be noted that all season long I have believed that this season reminded the most of 2006, when there was no dominant team and Florida ended up coming from off the radar to win it all (and George Mason made the Final Four). Given that, I tried to pick upsets whenever I could. This is one of those times.

In the other sweet 16, I have chalk (go figure) with Ohio State over Georgetown. I'm not really a big Ohio State guy this season, but I do think Evan Turner could be an even tougher matchup in the Dance because teams don't have enough time to prepare for the unique player that he is. This would be especially true in the Elite 8, with only 2 days to prepare, where I have Ohio State ending Sparty's run and advancing to the Final Four.

Other notable upsets: none. Big sweet life there. Right after I talk about wanting to pick upsets, I look at my bracket and it's 1-8 in the second round. Wow.

West Region:

I do have some upsets here. In the first Sweet 16 game, I have Syracuse over UTEP. Everyone picks a 12-5 upset every year (at least one), and I tend to gravitate toward picking against mid-major 5 seeds, like Butler here. I also have Murray State over Vanderbilt (I have NO confidence in Vandy for reasons that are yet unclear), which leads to UTEP in the Sweet 16. There, I have them losing to Syracuse. Not a shocking pick, but I'm jumping on the 'Cuse bandwagon for reasons that are similar to what I said about Turner above- their 2-3 zone, when executed as well as this team does this season, is a bear to prepare for and should be tough in the NCAA tournament format.

In the bottom, I have BYU getting through over Pittsburgh. I like BYU as a sneaky 7, and I think K State is my least favorite 2. I just don't know what they've done this year other than win a lot of non-marquee games and then get blown out by Kansas twice. In any other year, I don't see them being any higher than a 5. Hence, BYU through over them, and then over Pitt because of the same upset principle I stated above. Plus I was feeling some Joseph Smith love there.

Once in the Elite 8, I have Syracuse ending BYU's run. And I'm not done with Syracuse yet.

Other notable upsets: Murray State over Vandy, as stated above.

East Region:

The top half has easily my favorite first round matchup- Texas-Wake. What a game. This game could finish with absolutely any score- any at all- and it wouldn't shock me. Add to that that if Texas finally decides to play like it's early January again, they certainly have the horses to knock off Kentucky. No doubt.

But anyways, I do have Kentucky advancing to face Cornell, which will use excellent outside shooting and a Davidson-like mojo to advance over a really underwhelming 4/5 combo in Wisconsin and Temple. Once in the Sweet 16, however, Big Blue advances there.

On the bottom half, I have Marquette getting through to the Sweet 16 but losing there to West Virginia. I'm not really a huge West Virginia fan in the tournament, because if you look at recent history the winner of the Big East Tournament has usually come up short of their seeding, but I couldn't find a spot to knock them off.

That is, until the Elite 8, when they'll lose to Kentucky. A lot of people don't like the Wildcats this season, but I do. Sure, they're inexperienced, but that didn't seem to hurt them when they were going 32-2. And the fact is that John Wall is the most difficult player to guard in the country, and the 2nd toughest may be a trying DeMarcus Cousins. And I'm banking on the fact that Cousins may actually try for 6 games in a row. Which would be downright scary.

Other notable upsets: none. I do have Clemson winning a game, which is completely against my better judgment. But Purnell has to win a tourney game eventually.

South Region

Time is running out on this post, so we're going to have to move quickly. In the top half, I have Duke over Texas A&M. I thought long and hard about taking the Aggies, but in the end I didn't have the faith, and I do think that this is Duke's best team since 2005, and they're well positioned for at least an Elite 8 run.

On the other side, I have Villanova over Notre Dame. I know a lot of people are on the Baylor bandwagon, but I'm not. I don't know what Baylor has done to get me on their bandwagon, other than maybe beating Texas (not difficult). Instead, I will be on the 'Gody bandwagon. Until the Sweet 16, when I will switch to Scottie Reynolds.

In the Elite 8, I have Nova over Duke. I know the Wildcats have dropped 5 of 7, but if they can get through the early rounds, I really like their veteran backcourt, especially Reynolds, to take over and get them back to the Final Four. Especially against Duke, whom they pounded last year.

Other notable upsets: Siena over Purdue. If you even call that an upset.

Final Four:

Syracuse over Ohio State.

Kentucky over Villanova.

And I have Kentucky winning it all. I just like John Wall, and my gut really tells me that this is his year and it's Big Blue's year to return to the national stage. Calipari has been so close before, it's only a matter of time before he gets that ring (and then it's only a matter of time before the NCAA takes it away from him). I think the Wall/Cousins combo will get it done for him.

Why Carolina Can Beat Duke

And it doesn't have anything to do with the fact that "it's a rivalry game, and anything can happen."

But here are the top 5 reasons why Carolina could beat Duke tomorrow night:

1) Interior matchup. There's no question that the play of Ed Davis has been a large part of this recent losing streak. Perhaps it was us as fans putting too high expectations on him, but he just hasn't proven that he can take over games as though I thought he could at the beginning of this season. However, if you look historically (admittedly, the last few games it's been even worse than this) Davis has struggled against more physical post men, and specifically post players who assert themselves physically on the offensive end of the court (Gani Lawal, Trevor Booker and the Texas frontline come immediately to mind). I remember one play in the Georgia Tech game in which Lawal received the ball on the block and just backed Davis down, banged him, and separated for an easy 5-footer. That kind of physical offensive play takes away Davis' shotblocking ability and I think hurts him offensively as well, by making him work harder on D. Although this Duke team counts many strengths, one of them is not a physical frontline. Lance Thomas, the Plumlee brothers, and Greg Zoubek have been solid, but they are not as physically imposing as many others in the ACC, and perhaps more importantly they are not real offensive threats, especially in the paint. This should allow Davis to be a little bit more free on defense to block shots, as well as to protect against some of the defensive wear that can rob a post player of aggressive offense.

2) Recent history. Simply put, there is certainly a psychological edge that a team receives from having had great recent success against another squad. If you don't believe me, simply look back at the Michigan State game earlier this year. The Spartans should have had all the motivation in the world to be the better team that night, but just like last year they got hit in the mouth early and never recovered. The same thing could happen tomorrow against Duke. If Billy Graves comes out tomorrow raining 3's early, then doubt could easily start to creep in for the Blue Devils, who have no current players with a winning record in this rivalry. Duke, after all, has all the pressure on them in this game. The rivalry has tilted hard toward Chapel Hill the last 5 years, and this is their chance to take it back, as well as a critical game for them in maintaining a tie with Maryland and a game lead on surging Wake Forest in the conference race.

3) John Henson. About two weeks ago, I was ready to write off John Henson as a work in progress who would need a summer working out in Chapel Hill to really get up to speed with the college game. But the last two games, he has shown brief (very brief) glimpses of why he was so highly recruited coming out of high school. More than perhaps any other player on this team, I think a major problem for Henson has been lack of confidence, and I think he has gained a lot in the past 2 games. At some point, I promise you that he's going to have a breakout game that makes people realize why we were all so high on him. Who says it can't be against Duke?

4) Roy. One of the things that I've been amazed by over this streak has been how frustrated Roy has been in his postgame press conferences. I know that Found didn't like his quotes, and at first I didn't either, but for the sake of needing 5 reasons why we could win this game I'm going to offer a different perspective. As fans, I think one of the major frustrations has always been that at times we seem to care much more about a loss than the players and coaches do. I can remember many times as a fan being furious after a loss only to hear the coach talk about how great of an effort the other team put forth. That does not appear to be the case with Roy. He feels these losses, and I think what he's been saying is just a reflection of that. For better or worse, Roy has always been purely honest, and I think what you're seeing now is honest frustration, frustration like a fan feels. Roy is a Carolina fan just like we are, and he doesn't like losing. The main difference for him is that he actually can do something about it, and at some point, I firmly think that Roy is going to turn that frustration into good. That time could be tomorrow night against Duke.

5) We are a desperate, talented team. This is my biggest reason why I think the Heels can pull it off. Throughout all sports, one of the most difficult opponents has always been and will always be the talented, desperate team. UNC is certainly that right now. I think our season is absolutely riding on this game. If we lose to Duke to fall to 2-7, this season is lost, and the losses will build to a point where effort and confidence-wise we just can't dig out. Some would argue that we're there already, but beating Duke when you're a Tar Heel can be a season-saver. If this team can find a way to win tomorrow, not only does their season have hope, but it ALREADY has success. At least they beat Duke. And if you don't think that the players realize that, I think you're wrong. College athletes know rivalries and they believe in them, for the most part. And the same goes for the fans. You can beat that the Dean E Smith Center will be rocking tomorrow out of desperation for something good to happen with this team. And if I were a top-10 ranked Duke team with all the pressure on them to win this game, I don't think I'd want to walk into that kind of desperation.

6) Bonus reason: Hansbrough gets his jersey retired. And that dude OWNS Duke. 6-2 in his career. You think he's going to lose now?

Final pick: Heels 82, Duke 79. Call me Lou Holtz if you want. But we'll see what you say tomorrow night.

Quick postgame Super Bowl thought

One think I like about Simmons is that he always has an athlete's big picture in mind when he watches them; he always talks about what a win or loss can do for a guy on the all-time list. He makes it far more cut-and-dry than I think it is, "If Kobe wins another title, he vaults up 7 spots" for example. But that was what I was thinking the whole game about Peyton Manning.

If Manning wins that game, not only does he run away with the title of best QB on the planet right now, he starts making an argument for being included in the Montana, Elway, Marino, Favre class of best QBs ever. More than just having two rings, the ring he would have this season would come essentially solely because of him. He's the first ever player-coach in the NFL I can remember (used to be popular in the NBA), and when the Colts went for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter, he didn't so much as look at Jim Caldwell. He just decided they were going for it and called a play. And they got it.

It's likely he's gonna get a lot of crap over the next week for the pick for a TD that he threw, the play that essentially decided the game. And he deserves some of it. But let's not forget he played an almost flawless game up until that point, and an almost flawless season up until the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl.

Problem is, he needs that ring to vault himself up the Pantheon of all-time QBs. Nothing else matters except getting that second title. His greatness was matched, if not surpassed, by Drew Brees in that game.

If he next season is just like his last, except that it ends with a Super Bowl win...then he's right back up there on the all-time list. But I can't help but think that this was a chance to move himself several places up the big board and that the interception cost him that opportunity. I don't think he's a choker. I don't think he's "un-clutch." I don't think he shrinks on the big stage. But the hardest part, for him, will be that it will be a full year before he has another shot to prove it.

Super Bowl Preview

One of my favorite things about Super Sunday has always been when the random sit-coms and cartoons that play throughout Sunday morning play their "Super Bowl" editions. I can still remember as a kid watching the Flinstones Super Bowl episode, and then the Full House Joey-invites-an-entire-bar-to-their-house-because-he-promised-Michelle's-class-he'd-take-them-to-the-science-fair episode. Classic. Not sure if this still happens now, but I hope so. If there are re-runs on tomorrow morning and they don't deal with football, that would be disappointing. Somewhere there are kids like me who need to experience that.

Now, on to the game.

I feel like much of the saturated analysis out there on ESPN is focused on the wrong thing. To me, I'm not sure it matters all that much that Dwight Freeney may not play or that Gregg Williams says he's going to hit Peyton Manning. The defenses just aren't going to have that great of an effect on this game. The fact is, both of these teams are going to score points. They just are. They're too good and their defenses are too average for this to go any other way.

For that reason, I'm probably more excited about this Super Bowl as any in quite some time, probably since the Panthers made it in 2003 (clearly, for different reasons). I think this is going to be close, and I think it will be exciting as heck. I'll probably be wrong, but that's okay. I can still be excited.

For my pick, I just don't think I can bet against the Colts right now. One of the most interesting things about this season and these playoffs to me has been Peyton Manning reinventing himself before. Prior to this year, he was really football's version of Greg Maddux- unstoppable in the regular season but much, much more average during the postseason. In 2010, though, it's just different. The Jets game showed that. New York had ALL the momentum in that game, up 17-3 and looking like they were doing the job in confusing Manning and the Colts offense. That, and they were already everyone's "it" team in the media. Then, it was like Peyton just decided that was enough, and he scored every time he touched the ball in the second half. That half of football was one of the great clutch performances by a quarterback I've ever seen. And I think it shows that Manning has finally figured out how to get the pressure off in the postseason and how to play like he does in the other 16 games during this time of year.

And I think he continues that tomorrow. Drew Brees will put up numbers, and the Saints will keep it interesting, but the Colts will ultimately pull it out, 38-34. Mark it down.

Perspective part 2

"How can you go any lower? Be honest: how can it get any worse than it is right now?"- Roy Williams, following the Heels' 75-60 loss to UVa on Sunday night

I'm glad that Oltz pointed out the major problem with Roy's quote...namely, that things CAN get worse and they can get MUCH worse. Oltz's post was right on in suggesting how everyone needs a dose of perspective.

I'd like to tackle another issue that Roy's quote brings up, which is this - why they heck is the head coach of the program making quotes like this? Not only does it sound desperate, exhausted and combative, it's just a poor example for the program's leader to set. There are lot of ways to interpret every quote that comes out of an athlete or coach's mouth, but this one certainly seems at least somewhat whiny.

I've written here before about how a lot of the blame for this season's ills falls on Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson and I still feel that way. But the struggles have stretched on enough to the point where Roy needs to examine himself and why he's not pressing the right buttons for team success.

Lastly, the head coach is the one who needs to be aware of the big picture, the long term, the grander scheme. And Roy's quote doesn't indicate any of that. When Michigan State played at UNC earlier this season (a HUGE win that gets huger every week for the Heels), I was struck at how desperately Tom Izzo wanted that win for his team. He knew that his program wasn't quite on the elite level and that they needed wins over elite teams to get there. The desire for that win burned in him, and when they didn't get it, it ate him up inside.

The point is, that's a coach who gets the big picture. He can see the forest through the trees. Roy has typically been that kind of coach in the past as well, and I think he was just a little worn down when making quotes like the above. But it would be nice if, next time, he gives himself a reality check.

Perspective

If you're not a Carolina fan, you probably shouldn't read this post.

Then again, if you're not a Carolina fan, it's amazing that you found this blog. Thanks for coming by.

"How can you go any lower? Be honest: how can it get any worse than it is right now?"

- Roy Williams, following the Heels' 75-60 loss to UVa on Sunday night

I am an absolute Roy Williams apologist. Anyone who knows me knows this about me. I think that his record speaks for itself, and that he has earned the right not to have to hear criticism from his own fan base. But, in saying this in obvious frustration after Sunday night's loss, Roy demonstrated that he is at least alike all other Carolina fans in one respect.

I think we could all use just a little perspective.

I know it seems bad right now, and by the lofty standards that Williams has set over the past 5 years, it is bad. But come on. It could get A LOT worse than it is right now. For one, we could have not won the national championship last year. We could have not won another one in 2005, or reached the Final Four in 2008. We could have not dominated the ACC and our biggest rival over that same 5-year stretch. I know that no one likes to live in the past, but let's get serious- it's straight impossible to sustain the kind of dominance we have had as a basketball program over this stretch. A down year is to be expected every once in a while. Apparently, this is that year. The most unfortunate thing is that somehow we managed to convince people that we were a top-10 team in the preseason, which is by far the worst thing that could have happened to this group.

I was talking to one of my friends in medical school here at Wake the other day, complaining about how bad our season was going. He laughed at me. As a fan from a respectable program (Wake), he pointed out that in his entire 7 years at Wake Forest (4 in undergrad, 3 in med school), he had seen exactly one NCAA tournament win. He told me quite frankly, "you should probably get over having one bad year."

He's right. We all need to take a step back and realize that we have had a lot of good as fans in recent history, and that we're probably going to take one on the chin for a year now. We're not going to win the national championship or even the ACC every year- I think it's a pretty good showing that we've won it for 3 years in a row. If we miss the NCAA Tournament, maybe I'll be okay with some complaining. But until that actually happens, try to be positive and keep a little bit of perspective.

And hey- at least we beat State.

Today in Basketball

My best thoughts on the world of hoops today:

- To me, Kansas showed that they're probably the best team in the country right now. One week after #1 Texas couldn't win in the Octogon of Doom, the Jayhawks went on the road against a highly motivated and very good Kansas State team, took their best shot, and won in OT in gutsy fashion. Kansas can go inside with Cole Aldrich and outside with Sharron Collins, and then they can throw Xavier Henry, Tyshawn Taylor, and the Morris twins around on the wing. They just have so many ways to hurt you. For me, that's enough to make them my #1 team in the country right now.

- That said, there's no doubting Kentucky's ceiling. They, too, showed today just how good they can be, dismantling Vanderbilt- albeit at home- with a double-digit win. John Wall is easily the most dynamic player in the country, and when he's running and DeMarcus Cousins is trying as hard as he can, the Wildcats are probably the team with the most potential. I think I'd take Kansas in a best-of-7 series, but I'd take Kentucky's best effort over anyone. As much as me and my secret Calipari hate don't want to say it.

- Syracuse, on the other hand, I do not know what to make of. The Orange look nearly unbeatable at times, and then there are times when they fall behind to a 1-8 DePaul team by 18 before snapping out of it and winning by 2. The thing that worries me about the 'Cuse is that I'm not sure they have a true go-to guy at this point, which is absolutely what you need to have come March. Kentucky, Kansas, even Texas with Damian James, Michigan State, West Virginia- they all have that one guy who they can go to for a big bucket when they need to stop a run. I don't know if Wesley Johnson is ready to be that guy, but I also didn't see the game today. Maybe when they fell behind DePaul by that much, they went to Johnson and he pulled them out of it. I truly do not know. But I do know that either way doing that against DePaul isn't THAT impressive.

- Bob Huggins CANNOT be serious with his windsuit.

- As much as I like to watch Duke lose, this was not a good game for the ACC. The conference most likely won't have any teams left in the top 10, and we had our flagship school get pounded by the 4th-ranked team from the Big East. Watching the Blue Devils today was the same as it's been for the past 5 years- they're just a step too slow to contend with teams that have more elite talent. Chris Wright and Greg Monroe got whatever they wanted when they wanted it offensively. If you don't believe me, look at the numbers- those 2 plus Austin Freeman went 23 for 31 from the field. Coach K's signature has long been tight man-to-man defense, but it seems like the past several years they just haven't had the personnel to execute it, and today they certainly didn't. Now, that said, there's plenty of time for Duke to turn it around, and this is only one game. So they might prove me wrong. But today that's sure what it looked like.

- In related information, how can Obama and Joe Biden be in the same place at the same time? Isn't that against some rule?

- Charlotte is 6-1 in the A-10 and beat Temple this week. There we go 49ers!

- Looking ahead, big game tomorrow night for the Heels. I thought North Carolina did a lot of good against NC State, but they need to prove to themselves and to the rest of the conference that they can play like that for 2 games in a row. Plus, a win would get them to .500 in conference play, which I think would be huge for their confidence, which has sagged a little bit during the 3-game losing streak. I think a sneaky big key going forward for Carolina will be the play of Dexter Strickland. He's the best on the team by far at creating easy offense in transition, and playing offense just gets easier when you're getting some points off layups instead of grinding for them in the halfcourt. Watch for that tomorrow night, in addition to watching whether or not Tony Bennett can keep this game ugly enough to win it 62-60 in Chapel Hill. We'll see what happens.

- Another game I'll be watching tomorrow: Maryland at Clemson. If the Terps can win in Littlejohn, I'll start to believe that they can contend for the ACC regular season title. Clemson may be inconsistent, but they're tough at home, and Maryland doesn't have many other impressive wins on their schedule. This would be a start.

Leadership

Found brings up an interesting point about this year's Heels basketball team, and I think it's a great one. I try to stay away from message boards and the like as much as possible, but when I do occasionally succumb to the temptation, I've noticed that a lot of people are calling out Larry Drew as the main problem with this year's team. And when I read this, I can't help but thinking that these people are watching different games from me.

Don't get me wrong- Larry Drew is certainly not an elite point guard on the level of Ty Lawson or Raymond Felton. But that's okay. The thing is, he's been at least as good as I expected this season- I never thought that he was going to be great. I do think he is going to be good, and if you take out a few games there's a solid argument that he has been good this season. Carolina fans are unbelievably spoiled (one of the main reasons there are so many ABCers out there) and think that every PG that walks through the door has to live up to the likes of those 2 guys. They're not going to, and we need to all be okay with that. Has Drew struggled the last two games? Sure. But he's also had several solid games this season, and at times he has been by far the most controlled player on the court.

As Found said, the biggest surprise for me with this year's team, and the main reason why I think they're struggling so much, has been the play of the guys I expected the most from. Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson, the two senior leaders who have started for Final Four teams, have been disappointing so far. Neither has stepped up to the level that they need to if this team is going to contend for a conference title and second-weekend birth in the NCAAs. To some extent, too, you could throw Ed Davis in that mix as well- he's been solid for sure, but in the two losses to Clemson and Georgia Tech he has been an afterthought on offense. Again, that sounds like the same thing I said about Drew, but Ed Davis is supposed to be an elite player- he's our "star." And he just hasn't played like it.

All of this leads me to another thought- leadership. It seems like as a Carolina fan I've heard that word a lot over the past 3 years. Any time a Carolina team is struggling (including last season following that 0-2 conference start), it seems like everyone wants to talk about how there's not enough leadership. What does that even mean? It's hard for us as fans to comment on whether or not there is enough vocal leadership in the locker room of any team. So I think I'm going to stay away from that. However, I will say that this team is missing that one (or two) guy(s) who, when the game is going south quickly, can get the ball in his hands and stop the bleeding. Hansbrough, clearly, was that guy. Also, toward the second half of last season, Lawson was that guy. This year's team has no one like that. Maybe that is leadership, I don't know. But I thought that Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson could be that guy. When Clemson starts pressing and they open up an 8-point lead, I want Deon or Ed Davis to post up and call for the ball, get it, and then power a move to the basket for 2 to stop the momentum. Great teams have that guy who can do that. This team doesn't. And maybe that's okay. You know, this team is very inexperienced and maybe they'll struggle. Realistically, that's fine. But I just think that this type of problem points to what Found said, that the struggles of this team have much more to do with guys like Ed Davis and Deon Thompson than with Larry Drew or Dexter Strickland.

Which leads me to tonight. Wake Forest comes to the Dean Dome. Clearly, this is an important game to me personally as a student at Wake for medical school, but it's an important game for the Heels as well. After tonight, UNC will have a 6-day break to get things right in practice and at the trainer's table (another understated problem with this year's team has been injuries) before two winnable games against State and Virginia. If Carolina can find a way, any way, to edge this one out tonight, I'll feel a lot better about our chances this season.

As for how the game might actually go, watch how UNC chooses to guard Ish Smith in this one. If he struggles, Wake becomes very inconsistent offensively, as Duke showed in forcing Smith to go 3-12 on Sunday night. In the second halves of the Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech games, the Heels played the kind of defense I believe they're capable of, and if they do that for 40 minutes tonight, I think they'll win easily. If they lose focus a little bit, Smith could really hurt them, and it will open up the Deacons' offense for their several other options as well.

Heels in the League

It's NFL conference championship week, and in honor of my boy (former Hawkeye) Shonn Greene being ridiculous all over the Chargers, here's the topic: rank your favorite former Tar Heels in the NFL. Doesn't have to be based on skill, success, talent, whatever, though those probably contribute.

My list:

1. Hakeem Nicks - could be a stud eventually
2. Vonnie Holliday - sick name, sick long career, still getting it done
3. Jeff Reed/Connor Barth (tie) - want to be out at a bar with them after they hit a game winning kick
4. Alge Crumpler - past his prime but that prime was nasty
5. Sam Aiken - Da Bills
6. Fast Willie Parker - loses points cause he didn't get much UNC time, plus how many years does he have left in the tank? But love what he brings to the Steelers

Middle. Dre' Bly - love the guy, feel bad he has been stuck on bad teams for a large part of his career

Last. Gerald Sensabaugh

"Senior" and "leader" - not synonymous

Oh sorry Oltz, I must still have been on my victory lap from the second straight bowl pick off win. Funny how that happens. I almost celebrated by proposing to Rachel Glandorf at midfield of Texas Memorial Stadium. Seems like someone got there first.

But my post today focuses on this: the fact that Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson are one of the larger reasons this Tar Heel team has underperformed so far.

There's nothing negative than can be said about Ginyard's personality, his devotion to the team to come back for another year, his well spoken-ness, or by all accounts, his work ethic. But there's plenty negative to be said about his performance on the court and his lack of in-game leadership with the team.

Ginyard absolutely needs to be the steadying force, the good decision maker, the ball protector and the organizer of the team when he's on the floor. I'm not sure he's any of those. He turns the ball over way too often, hasn't really figured out how to get himself easy baskets, and doesn't seem to organize the team on the floor the way a senior is expected to.

The problem, really, though, is the turnovers. Besides the point guard, who leads most teams in turnovers by virtue of handling the ball the most, which Tar Heel has the most giveaways on the team? Marcus Ginyard. Guess who's second. Deon Thompson. Assist-turnover ratio is a crude measure, but it's fairly telling in this case.

Against Clemson: Ginyard 1 assist, 5 turnovers. Thompson 1 assist, 5 turnovers. No one else on the team (aside from the point guard) had more than 3 turnovers.

By no means is it the only problem for the team or the most glaring one, but it's the one for which there is little excuse. These guys are seniors and tremendous people...but unless they lead their younger teammates by example with good decision-making, this team's ills won't be cured very fast.

Lot Going On

A LOT has been happening in sports this week without much comment here. This must be changed. Here are my random, not-very-connected thoughts on all that has been occurring:

1) The whole Lane Kiffin-to-USC thing: wow. Maybe some of you out there expected this, but I sure didn't. With Kiffin's 1 year of experience plus the fact that USC is undergoing serious investigations, I thought that the Trojans' brass would go with someone new, outside of the Pete Carroll mold, which they could use potentially in talks with the NCAA. Not sure how it's going to look now when USC goes into their meetings having just hired a coach who has himself been investigated for recruiting violations.

On the other side of this, people need to stop with the all-out hatred of Kiffin for this move. If you want to hate him for what he said and whose feathers he ruffled while at Tennessee, then fine, but we all need to get off our high horse when criticizing him for leaving UT after one season now. If USC is where Kiffin really wants to be, then he has to take the job whenever he is offered it. What did you want him to say? Sorry, guys, USC is where I've always wanted to be, but I can't take the job because I've only been here one season? No. That would be ridiculous.

2) In the world of college hoops, there are some interesting games to watch out for this weekend. On the local front, the Heels have a big stretch coming up, with 3 of their next 4 at home and the one road game at NC State. If UNC expects to make a move in this year's ACC, it really HAS to win 3 of those games, and we should hope to win all 4. Sure, the loss to Clemson was disappointing, but that's a tough matchup for a young backcourt against that press, especially in Littlejohn, where Clemson is 10 times as hard to beat. On the other hand, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, at home, should be games that this team can win, and they really need to in order to start building some momentum.

Elsewhere in the ACC, Wake Forest has a great opportunity Sunday night to make their first in-conference statement against Duke. NC State gets Clemson at home, where the Tigers are prime for an emotional letdown against a Pack team that suddenly has life after a surprising win at Florida State. And the only currently undefeated ACC team, Virginia, has a chance at 3-0 in C'ville against an inconsistent Miami squad.

And then on a national stage the Syracuse-West Virginia game certainly has intrigue, as the Fighting Huggie Bears struggled in their last elite matchup against Purdue. At home, if WVU wants to be considered serious on the national stage, they absolutely need to knock off the Orange in that one.

3) And then there's the NFL playoffs. If the Colts were to lose to the Ravens this weekend, the criticism of Jim Caldwell this offseason will be deafening for the first-time coach. I don't personally think that's going to happen, but it certainly wouldn't be a shocker. I think my favorite right now might be the Chargers, but I don't know if I trust Philip Rivers et al to make that final step after getting deep runs in the playoffs each of the last two seasons before falling short. It's also hard not to like the Cowboys with the way they can run the ball, but everyone and their mother is jumping on their bandwagon, which probably means they're going to lose. Easily the game I'm most looking forward to is the Cardinals-Saints, because Drew Brees and Kurt Warner are two of the best quarterbacks to watch on TV, and they'll be playing on the same field. That Arizona-Green Bay game was probably the best NFL game I've seen since St Louis-Tennessee in the Super Bowl in 2000, and now they get to go against the Saints? Yessir!

If asked to pick the games, I think I'd take the Colts over the Ravens, the Chargers over the Jets, the Cowboys over the Vikings, and the Saints over the Cardinals.

I think I had 2 partners in writing this blog. Not really sure though. Boys? Any thoughts????

ACC Basketball

With the end of the national championship on Thursday night, it's now time to turn our full attention to college hoops, a move that coincidentally corresponds with the Heels' ACC opener this Sunday night against Virginia Tech. In that vein, thought I'd offer my top 5 thoughts on both Carolina and then a thought on the ACC in general.



5 Thoughts on Carolina basketball:



1) One of my early pet peeves with this season is desire of many to compare this team to the '06 team. Literally the only similarity between the 2 is the fact that they lost a lot of players from a national championship team the year before. If you look at that team in '06, one of the main reasons they were able to be so successful is that, for the most part, that team was made up of a lot of role players- Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Marcus Ginyard, Wes Miller, David Noel, etc all had well-defined roles and didn't really ever try to get too far outside those roles- plus one very special freshman who was the consistent go-to guy in times of crisis (Tyler Hansbrough). This team, on the other hand, is made up of a lot high school studs who are struggling with finding their roles, most of the time in reduced minutes from what they're used to. Also, this team really lacks a go-to scorer in the vein of Hansbrough. If anything, I think this team is more similar to the '07 squad, which had a lot of young studs who struggled to find a consistent rotation where everyone knew what they should do. Of course, that '07 team still had Hansbrough, and if this season needs to be another time for Carolina fans to reflect on how special he was and just how many games he won for us by himself, then so be it, because he was and he did.



2) As frustrating as it was to watch the Heels blow it against Charleston, I don't think in the long run that game matters too much. The great thing about college basketball is that the identity of a team is really formed in conference play. At the end of this season, no matter how Carolina finishes up, I significantly doubt that the thing you will remember is that game. If you don't believe me, look back at past teams. When thinking about the '03 team, I doubt many of you remember that they won the Preseason NIT including a win over a Roy Williams-coached top-10 Kansas team (that would ultimately play for the NCAA championship). When thinking of '05, you probably don't spend too much time thinking about the Santa Clara loss. Nobody remembers too well the blowout loss by the '06 team on the road against a mediocre USC team. And the frustrations we all have when thinking about the '07 team probably have more to do with losing the lead against Georgetown than they do getting owned by Gonzaga in the Preseason NIT. My point is, for better and worse, our memories of this team will be shaped during conference play and then the postseason. So focus on that more than on the past loss.



3) With that said, this team has a lot of issues that need to be fixed soon. Virginia Tech as a team always plays us tough, and then after that we travel to Littlejohn, which has been the site of some nailbiting games for Tar Heel fans. With a young but dangerous Georgia Tech team after that, I think it's easily possible that UNC stands at 0-3 or 3-0 following the start to ACC play. But I think the road will get a lot easier if we can pick up the W tomorrow night against the Hokies.



4) Along those lines, the key for the Virginia Tech game I think is going to be getting off to a good start. With a young team, you don't know how they'll respond to such a bad loss. They might take it too easily or too harshly. Either way, I think an early run against the Hokies that gets that home crowd into the game early is just what we need. So watch for the first 5-10 minutes in that one as a key to how it might turn out.



5) Prediction for tomorrow night's game- I think Larry Drew plays more minutes at the 1, and I think Dexter Strickland plays more minutes at the 2, especially with Ginyard still out with the ankle injury. Strickland is a much different player in the Dean Dome than away from it, and he'll remind us of that. I think Ed Davis builds on one of his best games as a Heel in defeat on Monday and has a monster game against an average Virginia Tech frontcourt. And as long as the defense can focus for at least most of the game (or maybe most of a half?) I think the Heels will be fine at home against the Hokies.



1 Thought for the ACC:



1) Before the season, I felt very strongly that this was going to be an interesting year in the ACC. For the first time in 4 years, there is some uncertainty at the top of the conference. Duke has been solid so far (in all honesty, they've been much better than I thought), and they're clearly the favorite to win as of today. But there are a host of teams that have a unique opportunity this year to grab the limelight. NC State has been looking for traction under Sidney Lowe, and they've looked good at times this year. Virginia has a new coach, and although they haven't been playing well so far, I'm a huge Tony Bennett fan and I wouldn't be surprised if they surprise some teams in conference play. Wake Forest has some very talented players but I'm not sure Dino Gaudio is the answer as a coach. Clemson has been steadily building a winner. Florida State and Miami have had flashes over the past 2 years. The point is, with North Carolina in a bit of a rebuilding year, many of these teams could have a unique opportunity this season to take that next step within the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of those teams can step up and do so.

One last miss

Sorry I forgot to post my pick yesterday. For the record, I took Texas +4.5 for $200. So that's another miss for me. Surprise, sur-frickin-prise.

I have to say, that was one of the more brutal non-covers I have experienced. I felt good at kickoff, then conceded defeat when McCoy went down. Then Bama went into a shell, the freshman grew a pair, and miraculously I'm covering again with just 3 minutes to go! All I needed was Texas to not turn the ball over in its own redzone.

Of course, that is EXACTLY what happened. So I felt like I lost the same bet twice in one night. Brutal.

What a shame that the game played out the way it did. Anyone with a pulse has to feel awful for Colt McCoy, who started nearly 50 games in college and didn't get hurt until the most important and final game. Just tragic.

I also thought the last TD by Saban was needless and classless. I wouldn't expect anything else.

Hook 'em.

National Championship Pick

As you get ready to watch the National Championship game tonight, think about one thing first. No matter what you may think about the BCS, consider this- I think that most of America would agree that Alabama and Texas are the two best college football teams in the country (Florida has an argument, sure, but they had a playoff of sorts by playing the Tide in the SEC Championship game). And for all that the BCS does NOT give us, one thing it does is that it tries to do just that, to play the 2 best teams in the country against each other for the championship. I would argue that such an occurrence is rare in sports. I would charge you to look back over the NCAA Tournament over the past 10 years and look at how many times you think the 2 best teams over the entire season played in the final. I can think of one time- 2005- when I think that was the case. Is the BCS fair? Certainly not. But does it give us one heck of a game to watch tonight? Absolutely. So let's enjoy that.

National Championship Game, Alabama (-4.5) vs Texas

When you look at these two teams, I think that Alabama is the type of team that you know what you're going to get from. They're going to run the ball well, they're going to have strong line play, and Nick Saban is probably going to structure his game plan such that Greg "Tin Cup" McElroy isn't put into too many situations where he can lose the game for them. Texas, in my opinion, though, has the higher ceiling. They have who I consider to be the best college football player on the field tonight- Colt McCoy- and because of that they're a threat to score enough tonight that Alabama just won't be able to keep up. On the other hand, Texas' offense has yet to click this season against a truly elite defense- they put up just 16 points against Oklahoma and 13 against Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. Then there's a small part of me that thinks that maybe Alabama put a lot of emphasis of beating Florida in the SEC championship to avenge last season's loss, and now there could be some trouble with getting too fat and happy in the month off, especially with so many people loving up on how good they are. I know, it's the national championship game, they should be focused, but there had to be some reason why Saban was so uptight about his players hearing the word "national championship." Also, the SEC is 5-0 in national championship games, which means they're clearly due for a loss, especially at the hands of Mack Brown, who also beat USC in 2005 after Sportscenter had matched up the Trojans with the "greatest teams of all time." In the end, in 50-50 games I like to side with the better quarterback, and here that means Texas. I don't know if I'd pick them straight up, but giving McCoy points? Hook em' Horns. Big Bob's pick: Texas.

College Football Bowl Pick-off, Final Edition

Another year, another bowl pick-off win for Found. It would be nice if this event were a little bit more competitive, but you just have to beat the opponents who are on your schedule, right?
Alright don't worry, I'm done gloating. At least until my celebratory winner's blog post, coming later.

For now, I'll eschew usual analysis of our last bowl game, since there's plenty of that going around, and look at things from a different angle: what are the ramifications if either team wins?

Thursday: BCS National Championship - Alabama (-4.5) vs Texas
If 'Bama wins:
-SEC's reputation further heightened, to a point that a lot of people probably don't want to hear
-Nick Saban vindicated, fully sheds the villain tag that a few still charge him with
-'Bama now becomes Exhibit A for "look what happens if you get a top-tier coach and pay him boatloads of money...he'll win a national title for you in just 3 seasons!"
-Winning with a gameplan of running and defense becomes more attractive
-Colt McCoy graduates with a close-but-no-cigar career
-Could Boise State beat Alabama?

If Texas wins:
-Arguments made for Texas being the best program in the country currently
-Colt McCoy graduates as one of the best "winners" in college football history
-Texas-Oklahoma rivalry gap further widened
-Mack Brown vindicated, proving it wasn't just Vince Young that won Texas' other national title under Brown
-Mark Ingram continues Heisman jinx in national championship
-Questions arise focusing on whether Saban can win the big one
-Could Boise State beat Texas?

Found's pick: Crimson Tide

I'm still awful at this

First off, I want to give a shout out (can I do that if I'm white?) to the juniors on UNC's defense who announced they're all coming back next year. Marvin Austin, Quan Sturdivant, Bruce Carter, Kendric Burney, and Deunta Williams all would've been drafted if they had declared, but they believed they're all be back as seniors. This basically guarantees that UNC will have the best defense in the ACC next year and a top-10 unit nationally, and it also gives us a shot to beat LSU in the season opener and contend for an ACC title. We'll discuss this a lot more in the future, but I am surprised and excited that all of them are returning.

I'm going to agree with Found that yesterday's NFL games were terrible. However, I was actually rooting for one of those teams to tank. As a Bengals fan, I actually wanted my team to lose last night to guarantee a rematch against the Jets instead of a rematch against the Texans (who already drilled Cincy earlier in the year and always lights up the Bengals defense). I didn't feel good about rooting for my team to lose, but it was a necessary evil to give us the best chance in the playoffs.

But I don't like people who cite Week 17 in the NFL as a reason that college football "gets it right" by not having a playoff. I think that BS because it only happens for one week, maybe two, of the season. In college football, a playoff system would still require teams to have 1 or 2 losses at the most, so it's not like they'd be able to take a month off and coast. Games would still mean something, and I highly doubt an 11-0 Alabama team would rest its starters and lose the Iron Bowl just to get ready for its first playoff game. I'm not calling Found out for promoting a non-playoff system - just a side rant that his post reminded me about.

Boise St. +7.5 over TCU

There's no doubt in my mind that TCU has been the more impressive team this year. The Horned Frogs play better defense than Boise, and they have more impressive wins (I discount Boise's win over Oregon because it was in Week 1). However, I have generally been wrong about every bowl game this year, so I'll pick the opposite of what I really think and go with Boise to keep it within a TD. Ironically, I see this game as more of a 20-14 slugfest than a 45-42 shootout. I am basing this prediction on Boise's game against Oregon (which I realize I already discarded earlier in this paragraph) and TCU's ability to smother teams defensively.

Georgia Tech -3.5 over Iowa

Aside from the UNC game, this was by far the easiest game of all the bowls for me to pick. One, my girlfriend is a Yellow Jacket and she's one of only about 6 people who could theoretically read this post. She'd be pissed if I took Iowa. Two, I am starting to believe in the triple option after being one of its biggest detractors for the past year. People like Oltz who think that GT only runs three plays are woefully mistaken. Paul Johnson is one of the smartest coaches (note: sheer intelligence doesn't always correlate with winning; see Miles, Les) in football, and his offense has so many damn wrinkles and intricacies that it changes just enough week to week to give defenses fits. Three, Iowa sucks. I'm sorry Gregg, but your Hawkeyes got bye on smoke and mirrors for long enough. Good teams don't get down by 3 TD's to Indiana. Good teams don't beat beat Northern Iowa by 1 point at home. It will always concern me when a team has a month to get ready for the option offense, but I am sticking to my guns here and taking the Jackets. Up with the White and Gold!!!

Troy +3.5 over Central Michigan

I don't know much about this game, but here's what I do know: Central Michigan plays in the MAC, and the MAC (0-4 in bowl games so far) sucks more than a girl on Tiger Woods' speed dial. I also know that Troy runs the spread for nearly 500 yards/game and drilled LSU in Death Valley last year for two-thirds of a game before collapsing. Give me the points.


Oltz - I will get back to you shortly with my Butch Davis thoughts.

Almost There...

Time to watch college football in earnest, boys, because we're about 4 days from having none for 7 months... Yzgoltz.

Also, Byrum has almost caught me in the Bowl Pick-off. Time to step it up...

Fiesta Bowl, Jan 4th, Boise State vs TCU (-7.5)

This is the sad part about this game- these 2 teams are ranked #4 and #6, and yet I know next to nothing about either team to feel smart about picking who's going to win. They just don't play enough prime-time games, although Boise does do a good job of taking the random Tuesday night 8 PM ESPN games. However, I will add that I think GENERALLY that TCU is the more battle-tested squad here, if for no other reason that the Mountain West contains some actually decent teams, rather than the WAC, which is for the most part terrible. So I think that they're going to win this game, but I don't know if there are many teams in the country who could feel too comfortable spotting the Broncos 7.5 points. I'll take Boise to cover. Big Bob's pick: Boise State.

Orange Bowl, Jan 5th, Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa

These 3 things I know are true: 1) I love to pick against the Big Ten 2) I'd LOVE for the ACC to get a winning streak going in BCS bowl games 3) I'm not all that impressed with Iowa as an elite college football team. This points to me picking the Ramblin' Wreck, but I just can't get the Jackets' epic pounding by LSU in last season's Peach Bowl out of my head. When you get down to it, any coach worth his salt should love the opportunity to play Georgia Tech with a month to prepare. That's far too long to prepare for defending 3 offensive plays. And I believe Kirk Ferentz is worth his salt. Big Bob's pick: Iowa.

GMAC Bowl, Jan 6th, Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy

What is this game doing here? What did the GMAC bowl do to get this time slot? Central Michigan's QB is nasty, although I can't remember his name. Good enough for me. Big Bob's pick: Central Michigan.

Updated records:
Found: 14-11
Oltzy: 10-15
Byrum: 8-17

College Football Bowl Pick-off, Round Seven

Watching the (generally awful) slate of NFL games yesterday, which featured teams not trying, unnecessary injuries, few compelling matchups and generally not much excitement....makes me glad for college football.

In college, there's always incentive to win. You don't clinch anything and then rest on your laurels. You don't tank for a higher draft pick. Every win brings a shot at a better bowl, a conference title, or just some damn bragging rights. Every week from week one to the bowls is competitive - and there aren't postseason rematches of games that just happened a week earlier.

Here's to you, college pigskin. Go Hawkeyes.

Monday: Fiesta Bowl - TCU (-7.5) vs Boise State
Don't tell me you're not into this game, even if 95 percent of America couldn't name more than a player or two on either team. These teams will both come to play, cause there's something pretty sweet about finishing a season undefeated regardless of whether it comes with a national title or not. Surely TCU would like a shot at a major conference team, but in order to complete their argument, they'd have to win this game. A loss and your yelling falls silent. I love that this game could end up 48-42 and I hate that the spread is so huge. But all season long TCU has played like a team possessed and it's not time to stop now. Found's pick: TCU

Tuesday: Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa
I'll admit that this matchup isn't very sexy, doesn't come with a lot of history and might not draw a lot of casual viewers. But for just some quality, old-school, tough and classic football, you can't get much better than this. Most people want to talk about whether Iowa can stop Tech's triple-option, how much time they have to prepare for it and yada yada. My concern, or key to the game, is whether Ricky Stanzi's return means the Iowa offense can score enough to win. Remember that Iowa has suffered injuries to its top four running backs, doesn't really have a go-to wide receiver and basically can't score points in a hurry if it needs to. So even if the defense holds Georgia Tech to 17 points...will that be enough? Well it's been an amazing ride so far, probably my favorite of any season during my lifetime, and it might as well have one more stop. Found's pick: Hawkeyes

Wednesday: GMAC Bowl - Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy
I've already spilled enough ink on the first two games that this one needs to be short and sweet. Love the offense that this bowl could provide, hesitant about C. Mich playing with an interim coach but I think Dan LeFevour caps a tremendous college career in style. Found's pick: Central Michigan

Reviewing the Butch Era So Far

In response to Found's earlier post, here are some quick, certainly belated, thoughts on the end of year 3 of Butch Davis at UNC:

- I think there's a lot to be said for the pessimist vs. optimist battle that Found put out there. It really has been a bit of a two-sided run for BD so far in Chapel Hill. On the one hand, there is a lot to be excited about- consecutive bowl appearances, some big-time wins (ND, Va Tech in Blacksburg, 3-0 vs Miami, etc), and a significant stint in the top 25 each of the past 2 seasons. But just as easily there are some question marks- 0-2 in bowl games, 0-6 against NC State and Virginia. In the end, I thought Butch was a touch ahead of my personal expectations last season, but thought things were a little behind my expectations for this season. While there's no doubt that the talent level has increased, there were some pretty disappointing lows this year that are tough to forget.

- There are some who will be happy if Carolina simply wins 7-9 games every season and is an annual participant in bowls, as BC has been for the past decade or perhaps UVa under George Welsh some time back. While some might look at this as defeatist, I'm not quite to that point, but I do think our expectations should be a little bit higher given the amount of money we are now investing in the program. I'm still struggling with the idea of UNC as a true national contender, as Butch has said he expects us to be, but I think contending for 10 wins and an occasional conference championship is certainly something we should hope for. And we're obviously not quite to that goal yet, although I think it would be foolish to expect that after just 3 seasons.

- However, with that said I really think that next year will be a true make-or-break season as far as whether we can turn the program under this coaching staff. Recruiting has dried up just a little bit from the initial success, and even the schedule reflects what should be increased expectations next season, with the season opener against LSU in the Georgia Dome. Also, here is a decent article reflecting just what the Heels have returning and how dangerous they could be. Some may laugh at us for doing this, but I think a reasonable expectation should be to seriously contend for at least a division title next season. If we go 8-5 again, I worry that the newness of Butch at UNC may begin to wear off, and we may struggle to turn that corner again in the future. Perhaps I'm being too short-sighted, but I really feel this is the chance. A lot is set up well for success in 2010 for the Heels football program. I'm already excited about that chance.

- Byrum, any thoughts on this?

Happy New Year

Sorry about the lack of posting yesterday. But I finally figured out what is worse than my ability to pick bowl games - and that is food poisoning. I picked up a nasty case of it at dinner on NYE, and I have been in epic pain and nausea for the last 36 hours. I'm just starting to recover, so I'm sorry for not posting until now - I just woke up. Anyways, on to my picks:

South Florida -6.5 over N. Illinois

I like USF's quarterback, BJ Daniels. He is absurdly athletic and makes a lot of plays after they break down. The Bulls have covered for me a couple times this year, so I'm gonna ride them again. Long live Tampa.

South Carolina -4.5 over UCONN

I don't have a lot of faith in South Carolina, but I have even less faith in UCONN to score points in this one. The Huskies' offense is pretty one-dimensional, and the Gamecocks are usually stout against the run. UCONN has made a habit of keeping games close this year, but I think South Carolina wins this one comfortably. I see 24-7.

Oklahoma St +2.5 over Ole Miss

OK State should have their starting RB and QB healthy for this game, which is huge. Jevan Snead never materialized into the QB that Rebel fans expected this season, but Dexter McCluster came on strong late in the year. I think this will be an entertaining game. I'm taking OK State because I trust Zac Robinson more than Snead.

East Carolina +7.5 over Arkansas

I'm biased towards the Pirates in this one - my brother and my mom both went to school there. Everyone seems to assume that Ryan Mallett will light it up and the Razorbacks will run away with this one. However, a lot of people assumed the same thing about Case Keenum and Houston a few weeks ago in the Conference USA title game. Somehow, I think ECU keeps it close here, and they might even pull the upset. Arrrgh!!!!

Texas Tech -7.5 over Michigan State

I don't know what to make of this game. Texas Tech is obviously playing without its coach and offensive coordinator, but Michigan State had ELEVEN players suspended for a brawl in a dorm a month ago. At the end of the day, Michigan State was terrible this year, and Texas Tech was solid. So I'll lay the points here. On a side note, I think it is AWESOME that Mike Leach has totally stuck to his guns during this debacle. He has refused to apologize and basically painted Craig James' family as a bunch of meddling, overprotective liars. I don't know who is telling the truth, but I definitely respect Leach's refusal to adhere to modern public relations standards.

I'm going to like back in the fetal position again. Food poisoning is worse than a bowl game in Canada...

College Football Bowl Pick-off, Round Six

This difference in bowl matchups from Jan. 1 to Jan. 2 is as much of a letdown as John Henson's young career for the Tar Heels has been. Yeesh

International Bowl, South Florida (-6.5) vs Northern Illinois
I'll say this for Northern Illinois, they probably want to be at this bowl in Toronto a lot more than the team from Tampa wants to be in Canada on Jan. 2. And since bowl games largely depend simply on who wants to play harder than the other team, it's tempting to go with N. Illinois here. But c'mon, it's Northern Illinois and South Florida probably out-talents them across the board. George Selvie could have a Suh-like performance. Found's pick: South Florida

Papajohn's.com Bowl, South Carolina (-4.5) vs Connecticut
Screw it, South Carolina is the better team here but UConn has just had the knack for keeping games close of late, win or lose. Plus Birmingham, Alabama (Richard Johanson) is a much better place to be right now than central Connecticut, so the Huskies will be psyched to be there. Found's pick: Connecticut

Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State
Not sure why Ok State is getting points in this game...the Cowboys are the ranked team with the better record. Probably has something to do with SEC love. Good matchup though, interesting plotlines and some recognizable names in this game. The team that doesn't get caught staring around new Cowboys Stadium in awe and just plays its game probably wins. Ole Miss' top receiver is named Hodge, which obviously complicates this pick. The points don't really help, so you might as well pick the outright winner. Found's pick: Oklahoma State

Liberty Bowl, Arkansas (-7.5) vs East Carolina
Much respect to what Skip Holtz has done with ECU's program; he's certainly proven they have the ability to knock off a major conference team and a good major conference team too. Arkansas is a good major conference team but with plenty of prep time, they won't succumb to the Pirates. Found's pick: Razorbacks

Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech (-7.5) vs Michigan State
This would have been a tough one to pick before all the crap went down at Texas Tech, but now it's a little too easy. My favorite game of the year was Iowa-Michigan State and if the Spartans play just as solid and Big Ten-esque in that one, they'll be fine here. Found's pick: Sparty

Jan 2nd Bowl picks

So none of us could get up early enough on New Year's Day to post our picks before the games began. Big SL there.

As for the New Year's bowl action, I thought the two biggest statements (no surprise here) were clearly Ohio State and Florida. The Bucks returned to the big stage with a Rose Bowl victory over Oregon that included Terrelle Pryor's first collegiate game looking like a real quarterback (including a man-sized back shoulder throw to ice it for the 26-17 touchdown- sick throw). Florida, on the other hand, showed the rest of the country that maybe, just maybe, the BCS got this one right by pounding overmatched Cincinnati. There are far more questions than answers for Florida going forward, but for now they can enjoy a dominant victory.

Now, on to the next round:

International Bowl, South Florida (-6.5) vs Northern Illinois

You have to love this. We give Canada a college football bowl and then send them this game. Why isn't it played on like December 20th? Anyhow, South Florida successfully got themselves overranked with another strong start this year only to lose 5 of 6 down the stretch. It's getting ridiculous how many times they do that. Still, I think they can probably take NIU. Big Bob's pick: South Florida.

Papajohn's.com Bowl, South Carolina (-4.5) vs Connecticut

How much longer do you think Steve Spurrier can hold on at South Carolina? After years of contending for the SEC at Florida, he can't be satisfied with continually going 7-5. In this game, I think clearly the Gamecocks have the better talent, but I really like Randy Edsall and his team has really bounced back from an incredible tragedy to win some big games down the stretch and get to the postseason. I think the difference here is the South Carolina defense, which should be able to bottle up the Huskies' run attack. Big Bob's pick: South Carolina.

Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State

It's quite fitting that Ole Miss and OK State meet in a bowl game; both started the season with huge expectations and a top 10 ranking, but ultimately struggled down the stretch to live up to that. Still, there's a lot of offensive talent on the field here, from Jevon Snead to Zac Robinson to Dexter McCluster. I could go either way here, especially since both teams laid eggs in the last game of the season. When in doubt, take the points. Big Bob's pick: Oklahoma State.

Liberty Bowl, Arkansas (-7.5) vs East Carolina

They're calling for me to board my flight home to NC, so I've got to hurry. I would love nothing more than to pick ECU here, especially with the touchdown spread, but I just don't see it. If UNC can pound the Pirates, Ryan Mallette definitely can. Big Bob's pick: Arkansas

Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech (-7.5) vs Michigan State

The Big Ten has been on a roll, and who knows what's going on in Lubbock. This one seems too easy. Give me those points. Big Bob's pick: Sparty.

Happy 2010

And welcome to the first of Oltzy's picks for the New Year.

Outback Bowl, Auburn (-7.5) vs Northwestern

I don't know anything about Northwestern, but as a general rule I'm not taking them to beat an SEC team. The touchdown spread, however, makes it interesting. However, I think Auburn has enough motivation in this game to come out focused and ready, and I think Chizik really wants this game to continue to quiet his doubters from a year ago. Big Bob's pick: Auburn

Gator Bowl, West Virginia (-2.5) vs Florida State

This game is everything that is wrong with college bowls. NEITHER of these teams deserve to be in a Jan 1 bowl game ahead of others in their conference who were sent to lesser bowls. As for the game, FSU gave up 200+ yards on the ground to Carolina; I just don't see how they can stop Noel Devine, even if it is Bowden's last game. Big Bob's pick: West Virginia

Capital One Bowl, Penn State (-2.5) vs LSU

Seriously? LSU is getting points in this game? I love picking against the Big Ten under any circumstances, but this is too easy. Big Bob's pick: LSU

Rose Bowl, Oregon (-3.5) vs Ohio State

This is tough for me. I usually love to pick against Tressellball because I think it is far too conservative to beat other ranked teams, but here it may work. Oregon doesn't have too many players (or any) that have played on a stage like the Rose Bowl, and Tressell's game plan may just be the perfect way to entice the Ducks into enough mistakes to lose. Like, for example, punching players in the face. Big Bob's pick: Ohio State. Can't believe I just did that.

Sugar Bowl, Florida (-10.5) vs Cincinnati

This is a great bowl matchup because the outcome could really impact the seasons to come. If the Bearkitties come to N'Orleans and knock off the Gators, then it will give credence to both the Big East and "lesser-known" undefeated teams who are hoping for BCS Championship game births in the future. If Florida blows out Cincy, the opposite effect will occur. I really like Brian Kelly and all that he did with this team, but he's not there any more and I just don't see how the Bearcats keep this close. Ten points is a lot to give up in the Sugar Bowl, but I gotta do it. Big Bob's pick: Florida.

Updated Records:

Found: 12-8
Oltzy: 9-11
Byrum: 5-15