Ed Davis Going Pro

Ed Davis announced a week ago or so that he's leaving college for the NBA Draft. At the time, I expected a rash of Carolina fans jumping off of cliffs about next year because of this. Surprisingly for me, the reaction- at least what I read- was that this wouldn't matter all that much as far as next season's final record goes.

Frankly, I agree. Here are 3 good reasons why Ed Davis playing in the NBA won't hurt the Heels next year. In fact, I would go so far as to say that we'll be better off without Davis.

1. Davis doesn't fit in well as a key in the Heels' offense. A lot of folks like to focus on Roy's primary and secondary breaks as the key to UNC scoring points, but there's a second part that is equally, if not more, important. Going back to Dean Smith, UNC has needed a post player through whom they could run their offense. What Smith, and now Williams after him, prefer to do is work the halfcourt offense through the post to create the best shot. This requires that the Heels have a post player that is an elite scorer, who they can to in crunch time. Don't believe me? Look at the best Heels teams of the past 20 years. All have elite post players- Montross, Rasheed, Jamison, Sean May, and Tyler Hansbrough. Ed Davis, for all of his talents, is not that. His offensive game is spotty at best, and while he may be a great rebounder and shot-blocker, I think those assets are more easily replaced with guys like John Henson. Tyler Zeller, on the other hand, if he can stay healthy, I believe has a chance to become that kind of go-to post scorer.

2. If Davis came back, there would be too many post guys. A lot of Carolina fans like to complain about Roy using Henson at the 3 last season, but they forget easily that at the time it was almost necessary. At the beginning of this season, Carolina had 6 post players (if we include Henson as one). That's too many. There's just no way to keep all those guys happy, or (more importantly) for the team to get into any kind of game rhythm when they're trying to cycle 5-6 guys through 2 post positions. Next year, without Davis, there will be 4, a much more ideal number, and I think it will show in the team's offensive rhythm.

3. Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, and Kendall Marshall. At the end of the day, these 3 guys are going to be the key to whether or not UNC returns to contention in the ACC next season. I've said many, many times that the biggest problem this team had is that in close games in the 2nd half (of which UNC lost more than you might remember), it was just so hard to create a good shot. As we covered above, Davis didn't and won't help that. Barnes and Bullock, in my opinion, are going to be the key because they both come in with the reputation of being able to create their own shot, a talent that was missing from this year's team. Combine that with the improved point guard play of having Marshall and Drew instead of Drew and Strickland (and then sliding Strickland over to the 2 spot, and giving him some outlet passes on fast breaks but not making him run a halfcourt offense), and I think the Heels will be much improved next year. But I don't think it would have had anything to do with Davis. Sorry, Easy Ed. Just the facts.

Also, Heels fans, take solace in this- at least you're not Wake Forest. The Deacons just fired a coach who earned the school's first NCAA Tournament win since Chris Paul and replaced him with Jeff Bzedlik. Or however you spell it.

You Have to Love Phil

You just do. For some reason, I know that some golf fans don't like him. I have no idea how this could possibly be. He wears a constant smile on his face, he high fives fans, he hugs his wife and kids after he wins tournaments, and he pulls off shots like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXbeMwLzMW8

Are you freaking serious? Who tries that shot? Phil has taken some heat over the years for his flamboyant way of playing golf (see: 2006, Winged Foot, 72nd hole, driver), but you have to respect his consistency. He has lost majors playing like this, and now he has won them doing so. The only difference is, this time Phil pulled that shot off in the middle of a bogey-free 67, which has to rank among the best clutch rounds I've seen.

How could you not love that guy? I mean, seriously? Can someone explain this to me? Apparently some "insiders" claim that he's cocky. Fine. He might be. But I'm not going to ignore overwhelming evidence to the contrary (see above) just for the sake of trying to be seen as an "insider."

Now, to G's point. On the surface, it sounds absurd to rank Phil among the best golfers of all time. But he has a point about the Masters. This win gives Phil 3 green jackets, which ranks behind only 3 players in history. I would say that at this point, his record at the other majors is probably a little too scant to rank him among the greatest of all time. However, what this win MIGHT do is make him the currently reigning king of Augusta National, even ahead of the Almighty Tiger himself. Phil has won 3 Masters since 2003; no one else, including El Tigre, has more than 1. I think that right now, in 2010, you might have to say that Phil's blend of shotmaking and large cajones might make him the best player at golf's most famous course, a place that traditionally rewards birdies as much as any major championship venue.

And who knows? At Pebble Beach, Phil's chances have to be high. If he raises that trophy, we may have to revisit this all-time question. Can't wait for that.

One for the ages

Was this year's Masters one of the best ever? Well what else had this...

-A HUGE storyline entering the tournament...the world's best golfer (maybe ever) returning to competition after a long hiatus

-Old guys making charming runs - Tom Watson, Fred Couples

-Young guns showing that they're going to be heard from - Anthony Kim

-A "best player to never have won a major" so close to shedding that tag - Lee Westwood

-Tiger in the hunt from start to finish, always begging the question "he might be a few back, but can he do it? Is now the time?"

-Masters history in Phil Mickelson making back-to-back eagles (only the third time that's ever happened)

-One of the most ridiculous cojones shots ever in the tournament - Mickelson from the straw onto the green from two hundo away

-Tremendous weather

-Tiger revealing his past character is still there ("God damn it Tiger") as he says he's getting back to his values

-A sap story with Mickelson getting the win while his wife undergoes treatment for breast cancer

...I honestly can't think of a Masters that compares. Now, there have been better Masters in some respects - more thrilling finishes, unique winners, dominating performances - but I'm not sure any of them had suck a package as this one.

And on a similar note, where do we rank Phil now among golf's all-time greats? Before you answer, consider this: only three golfers have more Masters titles than him, and those three are Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Tiger Woods. Wow.

Upsets

Duke and Butler are playing for the national championship tonight. Pause for a moment. Let that sink in.

Duke and Butler. Any of you out there have that one in your bracket? I, for one, did not. I actually had neither one in the Final Four, and I didn't even have Butler in the 2nd round. Yoltzy.

This isn't your daddy's Duke team either. This is a team that hadn't beaten better than a 5 seed in 8 years and didn't have a single player on the team that had participated in an Elite Eight, let alone a Final Four.

So how did we end up here? Well, in a word, upsets. Upsets have been everywhere this tournament ever since Ali Farokhmanesh decided to hit the ballsiest 3 in roughly a decade to sink the overall number 1 and media pick, Kansas. Since then, we've watched Syracuse fold up in the Sweet 16, John Wall disappear in the Elite 8 (though losing to West Virginia can't be an upset), and Tennessee win despite having most of its team participate in a different kind of court this season instead. Crazy, random stuff has happened in this tournament. And, as a result, we're left with a crazy, random final.

Duke vs Butler. By the way, it should be known that despite my own feelings on Duke none of that previous paragraph was meant to denegrade what those two teams have done. They've absolutely been the most consistent teams over 3 weeks and they deserve to be here.

But, still, Duke-Butler?

Wow.

So how can Butler win and pull off the greatest NC game upset since 'Nova in 1985? Well, for me there is one key to beating Duke. It's not getting out on their 3-point shooters, though that will help. It's not breaking their man-to-man, though that would too. It's not even picking one of the Big Three to shut down and make someone else step up; that actually probably won't work- ask Baylor. The key for Butler tonight will be whether or not they can keep Brian "Moving Screen" Zoubek off the offensive glass. Duke absolutely KILLS you with offensive rebound/kick out combo punches which end with Scheyer nailing a 3. Roll back the West Virginia tape, and you'll notice that Zou doesn't even look to score most of the time, he just looks for something thin and white flashing around the 3 point line and fires it out there. Inevitably, with the defense focused on boxing out, Scheyer is open and free to rain daggers down from out there. It's brutal.

If they can keep Duke off the offensive glass, I really believe they'll win. I think that Duke's offense will struggle if they can't get second chance points. Their Big Three have just logged too many minutes to work that hard on the offensive end. Although Scheyer will contort his face about 1000 ways trying.

I, for one, am skeptical that the Bulldogs can do it. But this should come as no surprise to anyone, since I was skeptical they could beat UTEP. Either way, I'll be interested in watching.

Here's to random national championship games. Check back later this week for a recap of the tournament as well as thoughts on the end to the Heels' season and the Masters. Busy week.

When a Champion isn't a Champion

The UNC-Mississippi State game in the second round of the NIT was probably the most enjoyable Heels game to watch all season (other contenders - beating Mich St at home; the first half of the Syracuse game; heading into Winston-Salem and venting some frustration).

Whether it's a good thing or bad thing that my team's best game came in the second round of the NIT, I'm not sure.

But now that they have three solid wins against decent competition in the NIT under their belt, these Heels need to lose. Soon. I don't care whether it's against Rhode Island in the semifinals or the Dayton/Illinois winner in the finals. But I don't want the Heels to win the NIT.

Why? Because one of the most valuable things in sports is the team that plays with a chip on its shoulder. And this team, next season, needs to have a gigantic one. Winning a bunch of games at the end of the season softens the pain, eases the sting and isn't nearly as powerful of a motivating tool as an abysmal end of the season (which the Heels had up until the NIT).

These guys aren't, and shouldn't feel like champions. They should be proud of what they've been able to do over the last few games and pleased with some signs of maturation from John Henson and LDII. But being proud toes the fine line between being pleased and satisfied.

I just want the losses, the bad press, the taunting and the disparaging comments about this year's team to fuel them in the offseason and into the next season. I need that to be the rage that powers their improvement. They need to be so sick of what this season was that they're determined to do what it takes to make sure nothing like that happens again.

It's fun that the Heels are still playing, that we can see Henson throw down ridiculous dunks, and that Will Graves might be improving his shot selection and that the young guards are making fewer mistakes. But the game I'm most concerned about is not UNC-Rhode Island on Tuesday in the NIT.

It's UNC against whoever they open the 2010-11 season against. Here's to beating Long Beach State by 45.

Overreactions

First, let me start by saying that my wife's Final Four was Cornell, Kansas, Gonzaga, and Baylor. And the first of those 4 teams to go out was Kansas. Hilarious.

But second, no sooner had the Panthers corralled the final rebound to shock the nation on Saturday night, but the reactions started pouring out all over ESPN, SI, and similar sites. Behold the parity of college basketball! The mid-major tag should be outlawed! There are no favorites anymore! College basketball will never be the same! (Don't believe the reaction was this strong? See here)

Okay. Let's take a deep breath here.

College basketball has not changed forever. There is not a new-found parity. No groundbreaking claims should be made based on this. It's one game, people. Shocking? Certainly. Perhaps one of the top 10 upsets that I personally have seen in the Dance. But there have been upsets before. There has been parity before. And all that really happened Saturday night was that Kansas didn't quite take the Panthers as seriously as they should have. Don't believe me? Well, with 2 minutes to go, when Bill Self finally woke up and realized his team might actually lose, he started pressing, his team started really getting after it defensively, and they came roaring back easily. They just ran out of time (and had one of the ballsiest shots I've ever seen go down against them). Imagine what would have happened if they had started trying like that on defense with 5 minutes left.

I also have a tough time getting behind the mid-majors as much as many in the national media. The fact of the matter for me has always been that, as much as I love the first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament, what gets lost a little in that shuffle is that it is still a tournament for the national championship. In the end, that's kind of the only thing that matters. If you don't have a chance to win the whole thing, I'm not sure you can say you're on the same pedestal as the guys who can. And until one of these "mid-majors" goes all the way and wins the national championship, I'm not going to give them the same respect that I give the big boys. I'm just not. Sorry, Chris Mack. The 4 Sweet 16's are impressive, no doubt, but they're not the Final Four. Or the whole thing.

In case you can't tell, I'm also against expansion for similar reasons. But we'll get to that after the season.

Quick thoughts on the games tonight:

1) Syracuse-Butler. I picked Syracuse to go to the finals in my bracket, but I didn't really like the pick. I didn't think the Orange had been playing all that well. Now, I love that pick. The Orange once again looked like their full potential against Gonzaga on Sunday. Butler is a solid team, but I don't think they can keep up with Wes Johnson and I think he has a big game in a 10-point 'Cuse victory.

2) West Virginia-Washington. Everyone loves Washington on the upset here, and for good reason. The Huskies are playing really well right now, and it's really hard to gauge how the Mountaineers will respond with Truck Bryant out. I think if Bryant had gotten hurt BEFORE the tournament, they'd have a better chance because they would have had time to get used to playing without him. But with just a few days to do so, I think they come out with too little confidence and Washington continues their run.

3) Xavier-Kansas State. Here are two teams I know next to nothing about. Obviously, as I picked both to lose in the 2nd round. I wish I could offer some legitimate thoughts, but I just can't. I'm sorry.

4) Cornell-Kentucky. Easily the matchup I'm most excited to see. So much so that I fully anticipate staying up to watch it even with an exam tomorrow. Cornell has looked awfully impressive, but you can't overstate the fact that they've played two RELATIVELY slower, less athletic teams in Temple and Wisconsin. The Big Red has never run into anything like John Wall or DeMarcus Cousins, and I would be particularly surprised if Cousins and Patrick Patterson don't have an absolute field day inside. If Cornell can hit some open 3's- and they will certainly get some open looks against the Kentucky D- then they can keep this close. But if they get cold early, it's going to get ugly.

Friday Tourney Thoughts

Holy Tournament, Batman.

I walked into the student lounge on Thursday afternoon to check scores during an afternoon reprieve, and walked right into one double overtime game and another that was about to the first overtime- between a 2 and a 15. And the rest of that day did not disappoint. Here are my top 3 thoughts from the first round, as well as the 3 I'm most looking forward to for tomorrow.

- Michigan State, whom for some reason I decided in my bracket was going to beat Kansas in the Sweet 16, proceeded to look terrible in a near-second-half collapse against New Mexico State tonight. The Spartans have been disappointing during the regular season largely because of their difficulties scoring the basketball, and tonight was no different, as they went for long stretches without getting any good shots, including seemingly missing 1 of every 2 free throws. Never count Tom Izzo out, certainly, but if I could go back and redo my bracket, I might think about it.

- It's always a little difficult to make generalities about the tournament in the first round, because the best teams are inevitably in blowouts against overmatched teams. But if you're looking for a darkhorse contender who proved something in the opening round, how about St Mary's or Butler? Butler drew a tough 12 seed in UTEP, which spent some time in the top 25 this season, but proceeded to turn a halftime deficit into an 18-pound thrashing. Likewise, St. Mary's shrugged off a lot of ESPN.com's darling pick Richmond with another impressive second half. I'm not implying that either of these teams is going all the way, but I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them dancing deep into the second weekend. Which, of course, is exactly why I picked both to lose in the first round.

- What has happened to Villanova? Scottie Reynolds put up a 1-14 effort during regulation and the Wildcats, top 3 in the country about a month ago, found themselves down 5 with a minute to play against 15-seed Robert Morris. 'Nova has a lot of experience back from last year's Final Four team, but they've been downright mediocre over the past 3 weeks, losing 5 of 7 before finally getting it together for about 6 minutes at the end of this game. I still feel OK about my pick with them, mostly because their draw is absurdly weak, but they've got to get it figured out soon or the aforementioned St. Mary's Gaels are going to give them everything they can handle tomorrow.

3 for Saturday:

- Wake Forest-Kentucky. Not sure if any of you stayed up to watch the Deacs knock off Texas in another OT game last night, but if not you missed this clutch shot from Ish Smith. If you haven't seen it, click on the link- it's pretty strong work. But the reason I like this matchup is that there are two legitimate reasons why Wake could pull the upset here- first, Kentucky is a streaky-at-best outside shooting team, and they depend on John Wall driving the basketball to create a good portion of their offense. Wake, however, employs a version of the "Pack Line" defense, which is built to keep drivers out of the lane- and they have the bigs inside to really make it work. UK is going to have to knock down some 3's, and they don't always do that. Second, Ish Smith is going to make John Wall work on the defensive end of the floor with his speed, and that could wear the star freshman down just enough to make him less effective on offense. It will be interesting to see how Wall handles playing against a guy with the transition speed of Ish. I still think Kentucky will win, and probably pretty handily, but if they struggle just a bit, Wake is the type of team that could give them trouble.

- Old Dominion-Baylor. If for no other reason, I just want to figure out what all the Baylor hype is about. I know that section is weak (see above, re: Villanova), but I just don't see the Bears as a Final Four team. Maybe they'll come out and thrash the Monarchs and show me why I should think otherwise. Then again, my wife picked them to win it all, and she's beating me in our bracket pool. Maybe I should reconsider...

- St. Mary's-Villanova. See above. The Gaels are playing with a ton of confidence right now, and you have to know that they firmly believe they're going to win this game. Villanova, on the other hand, is living on the opposite pole of the confidence scale. If you're a fan of the mid-majors, this is probably your number 1 game to watch tomorrow.