Why Carolina Can Beat Duke

And it doesn't have anything to do with the fact that "it's a rivalry game, and anything can happen."

But here are the top 5 reasons why Carolina could beat Duke tomorrow night:

1) Interior matchup. There's no question that the play of Ed Davis has been a large part of this recent losing streak. Perhaps it was us as fans putting too high expectations on him, but he just hasn't proven that he can take over games as though I thought he could at the beginning of this season. However, if you look historically (admittedly, the last few games it's been even worse than this) Davis has struggled against more physical post men, and specifically post players who assert themselves physically on the offensive end of the court (Gani Lawal, Trevor Booker and the Texas frontline come immediately to mind). I remember one play in the Georgia Tech game in which Lawal received the ball on the block and just backed Davis down, banged him, and separated for an easy 5-footer. That kind of physical offensive play takes away Davis' shotblocking ability and I think hurts him offensively as well, by making him work harder on D. Although this Duke team counts many strengths, one of them is not a physical frontline. Lance Thomas, the Plumlee brothers, and Greg Zoubek have been solid, but they are not as physically imposing as many others in the ACC, and perhaps more importantly they are not real offensive threats, especially in the paint. This should allow Davis to be a little bit more free on defense to block shots, as well as to protect against some of the defensive wear that can rob a post player of aggressive offense.

2) Recent history. Simply put, there is certainly a psychological edge that a team receives from having had great recent success against another squad. If you don't believe me, simply look back at the Michigan State game earlier this year. The Spartans should have had all the motivation in the world to be the better team that night, but just like last year they got hit in the mouth early and never recovered. The same thing could happen tomorrow against Duke. If Billy Graves comes out tomorrow raining 3's early, then doubt could easily start to creep in for the Blue Devils, who have no current players with a winning record in this rivalry. Duke, after all, has all the pressure on them in this game. The rivalry has tilted hard toward Chapel Hill the last 5 years, and this is their chance to take it back, as well as a critical game for them in maintaining a tie with Maryland and a game lead on surging Wake Forest in the conference race.

3) John Henson. About two weeks ago, I was ready to write off John Henson as a work in progress who would need a summer working out in Chapel Hill to really get up to speed with the college game. But the last two games, he has shown brief (very brief) glimpses of why he was so highly recruited coming out of high school. More than perhaps any other player on this team, I think a major problem for Henson has been lack of confidence, and I think he has gained a lot in the past 2 games. At some point, I promise you that he's going to have a breakout game that makes people realize why we were all so high on him. Who says it can't be against Duke?

4) Roy. One of the things that I've been amazed by over this streak has been how frustrated Roy has been in his postgame press conferences. I know that Found didn't like his quotes, and at first I didn't either, but for the sake of needing 5 reasons why we could win this game I'm going to offer a different perspective. As fans, I think one of the major frustrations has always been that at times we seem to care much more about a loss than the players and coaches do. I can remember many times as a fan being furious after a loss only to hear the coach talk about how great of an effort the other team put forth. That does not appear to be the case with Roy. He feels these losses, and I think what he's been saying is just a reflection of that. For better or worse, Roy has always been purely honest, and I think what you're seeing now is honest frustration, frustration like a fan feels. Roy is a Carolina fan just like we are, and he doesn't like losing. The main difference for him is that he actually can do something about it, and at some point, I firmly think that Roy is going to turn that frustration into good. That time could be tomorrow night against Duke.

5) We are a desperate, talented team. This is my biggest reason why I think the Heels can pull it off. Throughout all sports, one of the most difficult opponents has always been and will always be the talented, desperate team. UNC is certainly that right now. I think our season is absolutely riding on this game. If we lose to Duke to fall to 2-7, this season is lost, and the losses will build to a point where effort and confidence-wise we just can't dig out. Some would argue that we're there already, but beating Duke when you're a Tar Heel can be a season-saver. If this team can find a way to win tomorrow, not only does their season have hope, but it ALREADY has success. At least they beat Duke. And if you don't think that the players realize that, I think you're wrong. College athletes know rivalries and they believe in them, for the most part. And the same goes for the fans. You can beat that the Dean E Smith Center will be rocking tomorrow out of desperation for something good to happen with this team. And if I were a top-10 ranked Duke team with all the pressure on them to win this game, I don't think I'd want to walk into that kind of desperation.

6) Bonus reason: Hansbrough gets his jersey retired. And that dude OWNS Duke. 6-2 in his career. You think he's going to lose now?

Final pick: Heels 82, Duke 79. Call me Lou Holtz if you want. But we'll see what you say tomorrow night.

Quick postgame Super Bowl thought

One think I like about Simmons is that he always has an athlete's big picture in mind when he watches them; he always talks about what a win or loss can do for a guy on the all-time list. He makes it far more cut-and-dry than I think it is, "If Kobe wins another title, he vaults up 7 spots" for example. But that was what I was thinking the whole game about Peyton Manning.

If Manning wins that game, not only does he run away with the title of best QB on the planet right now, he starts making an argument for being included in the Montana, Elway, Marino, Favre class of best QBs ever. More than just having two rings, the ring he would have this season would come essentially solely because of him. He's the first ever player-coach in the NFL I can remember (used to be popular in the NBA), and when the Colts went for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter, he didn't so much as look at Jim Caldwell. He just decided they were going for it and called a play. And they got it.

It's likely he's gonna get a lot of crap over the next week for the pick for a TD that he threw, the play that essentially decided the game. And he deserves some of it. But let's not forget he played an almost flawless game up until that point, and an almost flawless season up until the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl.

Problem is, he needs that ring to vault himself up the Pantheon of all-time QBs. Nothing else matters except getting that second title. His greatness was matched, if not surpassed, by Drew Brees in that game.

If he next season is just like his last, except that it ends with a Super Bowl win...then he's right back up there on the all-time list. But I can't help but think that this was a chance to move himself several places up the big board and that the interception cost him that opportunity. I don't think he's a choker. I don't think he's "un-clutch." I don't think he shrinks on the big stage. But the hardest part, for him, will be that it will be a full year before he has another shot to prove it.

Super Bowl Preview

One of my favorite things about Super Sunday has always been when the random sit-coms and cartoons that play throughout Sunday morning play their "Super Bowl" editions. I can still remember as a kid watching the Flinstones Super Bowl episode, and then the Full House Joey-invites-an-entire-bar-to-their-house-because-he-promised-Michelle's-class-he'd-take-them-to-the-science-fair episode. Classic. Not sure if this still happens now, but I hope so. If there are re-runs on tomorrow morning and they don't deal with football, that would be disappointing. Somewhere there are kids like me who need to experience that.

Now, on to the game.

I feel like much of the saturated analysis out there on ESPN is focused on the wrong thing. To me, I'm not sure it matters all that much that Dwight Freeney may not play or that Gregg Williams says he's going to hit Peyton Manning. The defenses just aren't going to have that great of an effect on this game. The fact is, both of these teams are going to score points. They just are. They're too good and their defenses are too average for this to go any other way.

For that reason, I'm probably more excited about this Super Bowl as any in quite some time, probably since the Panthers made it in 2003 (clearly, for different reasons). I think this is going to be close, and I think it will be exciting as heck. I'll probably be wrong, but that's okay. I can still be excited.

For my pick, I just don't think I can bet against the Colts right now. One of the most interesting things about this season and these playoffs to me has been Peyton Manning reinventing himself before. Prior to this year, he was really football's version of Greg Maddux- unstoppable in the regular season but much, much more average during the postseason. In 2010, though, it's just different. The Jets game showed that. New York had ALL the momentum in that game, up 17-3 and looking like they were doing the job in confusing Manning and the Colts offense. That, and they were already everyone's "it" team in the media. Then, it was like Peyton just decided that was enough, and he scored every time he touched the ball in the second half. That half of football was one of the great clutch performances by a quarterback I've ever seen. And I think it shows that Manning has finally figured out how to get the pressure off in the postseason and how to play like he does in the other 16 games during this time of year.

And I think he continues that tomorrow. Drew Brees will put up numbers, and the Saints will keep it interesting, but the Colts will ultimately pull it out, 38-34. Mark it down.

Perspective part 2

"How can you go any lower? Be honest: how can it get any worse than it is right now?"- Roy Williams, following the Heels' 75-60 loss to UVa on Sunday night

I'm glad that Oltz pointed out the major problem with Roy's quote...namely, that things CAN get worse and they can get MUCH worse. Oltz's post was right on in suggesting how everyone needs a dose of perspective.

I'd like to tackle another issue that Roy's quote brings up, which is this - why they heck is the head coach of the program making quotes like this? Not only does it sound desperate, exhausted and combative, it's just a poor example for the program's leader to set. There are lot of ways to interpret every quote that comes out of an athlete or coach's mouth, but this one certainly seems at least somewhat whiny.

I've written here before about how a lot of the blame for this season's ills falls on Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson and I still feel that way. But the struggles have stretched on enough to the point where Roy needs to examine himself and why he's not pressing the right buttons for team success.

Lastly, the head coach is the one who needs to be aware of the big picture, the long term, the grander scheme. And Roy's quote doesn't indicate any of that. When Michigan State played at UNC earlier this season (a HUGE win that gets huger every week for the Heels), I was struck at how desperately Tom Izzo wanted that win for his team. He knew that his program wasn't quite on the elite level and that they needed wins over elite teams to get there. The desire for that win burned in him, and when they didn't get it, it ate him up inside.

The point is, that's a coach who gets the big picture. He can see the forest through the trees. Roy has typically been that kind of coach in the past as well, and I think he was just a little worn down when making quotes like the above. But it would be nice if, next time, he gives himself a reality check.

Perspective

If you're not a Carolina fan, you probably shouldn't read this post.

Then again, if you're not a Carolina fan, it's amazing that you found this blog. Thanks for coming by.

"How can you go any lower? Be honest: how can it get any worse than it is right now?"

- Roy Williams, following the Heels' 75-60 loss to UVa on Sunday night

I am an absolute Roy Williams apologist. Anyone who knows me knows this about me. I think that his record speaks for itself, and that he has earned the right not to have to hear criticism from his own fan base. But, in saying this in obvious frustration after Sunday night's loss, Roy demonstrated that he is at least alike all other Carolina fans in one respect.

I think we could all use just a little perspective.

I know it seems bad right now, and by the lofty standards that Williams has set over the past 5 years, it is bad. But come on. It could get A LOT worse than it is right now. For one, we could have not won the national championship last year. We could have not won another one in 2005, or reached the Final Four in 2008. We could have not dominated the ACC and our biggest rival over that same 5-year stretch. I know that no one likes to live in the past, but let's get serious- it's straight impossible to sustain the kind of dominance we have had as a basketball program over this stretch. A down year is to be expected every once in a while. Apparently, this is that year. The most unfortunate thing is that somehow we managed to convince people that we were a top-10 team in the preseason, which is by far the worst thing that could have happened to this group.

I was talking to one of my friends in medical school here at Wake the other day, complaining about how bad our season was going. He laughed at me. As a fan from a respectable program (Wake), he pointed out that in his entire 7 years at Wake Forest (4 in undergrad, 3 in med school), he had seen exactly one NCAA tournament win. He told me quite frankly, "you should probably get over having one bad year."

He's right. We all need to take a step back and realize that we have had a lot of good as fans in recent history, and that we're probably going to take one on the chin for a year now. We're not going to win the national championship or even the ACC every year- I think it's a pretty good showing that we've won it for 3 years in a row. If we miss the NCAA Tournament, maybe I'll be okay with some complaining. But until that actually happens, try to be positive and keep a little bit of perspective.

And hey- at least we beat State.