My best thoughts on the world of hoops today:
- To me, Kansas showed that they're probably the best team in the country right now. One week after #1 Texas couldn't win in the Octogon of Doom, the Jayhawks went on the road against a highly motivated and very good Kansas State team, took their best shot, and won in OT in gutsy fashion. Kansas can go inside with Cole Aldrich and outside with Sharron Collins, and then they can throw Xavier Henry, Tyshawn Taylor, and the Morris twins around on the wing. They just have so many ways to hurt you. For me, that's enough to make them my #1 team in the country right now.
- That said, there's no doubting Kentucky's ceiling. They, too, showed today just how good they can be, dismantling Vanderbilt- albeit at home- with a double-digit win. John Wall is easily the most dynamic player in the country, and when he's running and DeMarcus Cousins is trying as hard as he can, the Wildcats are probably the team with the most potential. I think I'd take Kansas in a best-of-7 series, but I'd take Kentucky's best effort over anyone. As much as me and my secret Calipari hate don't want to say it.
- Syracuse, on the other hand, I do not know what to make of. The Orange look nearly unbeatable at times, and then there are times when they fall behind to a 1-8 DePaul team by 18 before snapping out of it and winning by 2. The thing that worries me about the 'Cuse is that I'm not sure they have a true go-to guy at this point, which is absolutely what you need to have come March. Kentucky, Kansas, even Texas with Damian James, Michigan State, West Virginia- they all have that one guy who they can go to for a big bucket when they need to stop a run. I don't know if Wesley Johnson is ready to be that guy, but I also didn't see the game today. Maybe when they fell behind DePaul by that much, they went to Johnson and he pulled them out of it. I truly do not know. But I do know that either way doing that against DePaul isn't THAT impressive.
- Bob Huggins CANNOT be serious with his windsuit.
- As much as I like to watch Duke lose, this was not a good game for the ACC. The conference most likely won't have any teams left in the top 10, and we had our flagship school get pounded by the 4th-ranked team from the Big East. Watching the Blue Devils today was the same as it's been for the past 5 years- they're just a step too slow to contend with teams that have more elite talent. Chris Wright and Greg Monroe got whatever they wanted when they wanted it offensively. If you don't believe me, look at the numbers- those 2 plus Austin Freeman went 23 for 31 from the field. Coach K's signature has long been tight man-to-man defense, but it seems like the past several years they just haven't had the personnel to execute it, and today they certainly didn't. Now, that said, there's plenty of time for Duke to turn it around, and this is only one game. So they might prove me wrong. But today that's sure what it looked like.
- In related information, how can Obama and Joe Biden be in the same place at the same time? Isn't that against some rule?
- Charlotte is 6-1 in the A-10 and beat Temple this week. There we go 49ers!
- Looking ahead, big game tomorrow night for the Heels. I thought North Carolina did a lot of good against NC State, but they need to prove to themselves and to the rest of the conference that they can play like that for 2 games in a row. Plus, a win would get them to .500 in conference play, which I think would be huge for their confidence, which has sagged a little bit during the 3-game losing streak. I think a sneaky big key going forward for Carolina will be the play of Dexter Strickland. He's the best on the team by far at creating easy offense in transition, and playing offense just gets easier when you're getting some points off layups instead of grinding for them in the halfcourt. Watch for that tomorrow night, in addition to watching whether or not Tony Bennett can keep this game ugly enough to win it 62-60 in Chapel Hill. We'll see what happens.
- Another game I'll be watching tomorrow: Maryland at Clemson. If the Terps can win in Littlejohn, I'll start to believe that they can contend for the ACC regular season title. Clemson may be inconsistent, but they're tough at home, and Maryland doesn't have many other impressive wins on their schedule. This would be a start.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Leadership
Found brings up an interesting point about this year's Heels basketball team, and I think it's a great one. I try to stay away from message boards and the like as much as possible, but when I do occasionally succumb to the temptation, I've noticed that a lot of people are calling out Larry Drew as the main problem with this year's team. And when I read this, I can't help but thinking that these people are watching different games from me.
Don't get me wrong- Larry Drew is certainly not an elite point guard on the level of Ty Lawson or Raymond Felton. But that's okay. The thing is, he's been at least as good as I expected this season- I never thought that he was going to be great. I do think he is going to be good, and if you take out a few games there's a solid argument that he has been good this season. Carolina fans are unbelievably spoiled (one of the main reasons there are so many ABCers out there) and think that every PG that walks through the door has to live up to the likes of those 2 guys. They're not going to, and we need to all be okay with that. Has Drew struggled the last two games? Sure. But he's also had several solid games this season, and at times he has been by far the most controlled player on the court.
As Found said, the biggest surprise for me with this year's team, and the main reason why I think they're struggling so much, has been the play of the guys I expected the most from. Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson, the two senior leaders who have started for Final Four teams, have been disappointing so far. Neither has stepped up to the level that they need to if this team is going to contend for a conference title and second-weekend birth in the NCAAs. To some extent, too, you could throw Ed Davis in that mix as well- he's been solid for sure, but in the two losses to Clemson and Georgia Tech he has been an afterthought on offense. Again, that sounds like the same thing I said about Drew, but Ed Davis is supposed to be an elite player- he's our "star." And he just hasn't played like it.
All of this leads me to another thought- leadership. It seems like as a Carolina fan I've heard that word a lot over the past 3 years. Any time a Carolina team is struggling (including last season following that 0-2 conference start), it seems like everyone wants to talk about how there's not enough leadership. What does that even mean? It's hard for us as fans to comment on whether or not there is enough vocal leadership in the locker room of any team. So I think I'm going to stay away from that. However, I will say that this team is missing that one (or two) guy(s) who, when the game is going south quickly, can get the ball in his hands and stop the bleeding. Hansbrough, clearly, was that guy. Also, toward the second half of last season, Lawson was that guy. This year's team has no one like that. Maybe that is leadership, I don't know. But I thought that Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson could be that guy. When Clemson starts pressing and they open up an 8-point lead, I want Deon or Ed Davis to post up and call for the ball, get it, and then power a move to the basket for 2 to stop the momentum. Great teams have that guy who can do that. This team doesn't. And maybe that's okay. You know, this team is very inexperienced and maybe they'll struggle. Realistically, that's fine. But I just think that this type of problem points to what Found said, that the struggles of this team have much more to do with guys like Ed Davis and Deon Thompson than with Larry Drew or Dexter Strickland.
Which leads me to tonight. Wake Forest comes to the Dean Dome. Clearly, this is an important game to me personally as a student at Wake for medical school, but it's an important game for the Heels as well. After tonight, UNC will have a 6-day break to get things right in practice and at the trainer's table (another understated problem with this year's team has been injuries) before two winnable games against State and Virginia. If Carolina can find a way, any way, to edge this one out tonight, I'll feel a lot better about our chances this season.
As for how the game might actually go, watch how UNC chooses to guard Ish Smith in this one. If he struggles, Wake becomes very inconsistent offensively, as Duke showed in forcing Smith to go 3-12 on Sunday night. In the second halves of the Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech games, the Heels played the kind of defense I believe they're capable of, and if they do that for 40 minutes tonight, I think they'll win easily. If they lose focus a little bit, Smith could really hurt them, and it will open up the Deacons' offense for their several other options as well.
Don't get me wrong- Larry Drew is certainly not an elite point guard on the level of Ty Lawson or Raymond Felton. But that's okay. The thing is, he's been at least as good as I expected this season- I never thought that he was going to be great. I do think he is going to be good, and if you take out a few games there's a solid argument that he has been good this season. Carolina fans are unbelievably spoiled (one of the main reasons there are so many ABCers out there) and think that every PG that walks through the door has to live up to the likes of those 2 guys. They're not going to, and we need to all be okay with that. Has Drew struggled the last two games? Sure. But he's also had several solid games this season, and at times he has been by far the most controlled player on the court.
As Found said, the biggest surprise for me with this year's team, and the main reason why I think they're struggling so much, has been the play of the guys I expected the most from. Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson, the two senior leaders who have started for Final Four teams, have been disappointing so far. Neither has stepped up to the level that they need to if this team is going to contend for a conference title and second-weekend birth in the NCAAs. To some extent, too, you could throw Ed Davis in that mix as well- he's been solid for sure, but in the two losses to Clemson and Georgia Tech he has been an afterthought on offense. Again, that sounds like the same thing I said about Drew, but Ed Davis is supposed to be an elite player- he's our "star." And he just hasn't played like it.
All of this leads me to another thought- leadership. It seems like as a Carolina fan I've heard that word a lot over the past 3 years. Any time a Carolina team is struggling (including last season following that 0-2 conference start), it seems like everyone wants to talk about how there's not enough leadership. What does that even mean? It's hard for us as fans to comment on whether or not there is enough vocal leadership in the locker room of any team. So I think I'm going to stay away from that. However, I will say that this team is missing that one (or two) guy(s) who, when the game is going south quickly, can get the ball in his hands and stop the bleeding. Hansbrough, clearly, was that guy. Also, toward the second half of last season, Lawson was that guy. This year's team has no one like that. Maybe that is leadership, I don't know. But I thought that Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson could be that guy. When Clemson starts pressing and they open up an 8-point lead, I want Deon or Ed Davis to post up and call for the ball, get it, and then power a move to the basket for 2 to stop the momentum. Great teams have that guy who can do that. This team doesn't. And maybe that's okay. You know, this team is very inexperienced and maybe they'll struggle. Realistically, that's fine. But I just think that this type of problem points to what Found said, that the struggles of this team have much more to do with guys like Ed Davis and Deon Thompson than with Larry Drew or Dexter Strickland.
Which leads me to tonight. Wake Forest comes to the Dean Dome. Clearly, this is an important game to me personally as a student at Wake for medical school, but it's an important game for the Heels as well. After tonight, UNC will have a 6-day break to get things right in practice and at the trainer's table (another understated problem with this year's team has been injuries) before two winnable games against State and Virginia. If Carolina can find a way, any way, to edge this one out tonight, I'll feel a lot better about our chances this season.
As for how the game might actually go, watch how UNC chooses to guard Ish Smith in this one. If he struggles, Wake becomes very inconsistent offensively, as Duke showed in forcing Smith to go 3-12 on Sunday night. In the second halves of the Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech games, the Heels played the kind of defense I believe they're capable of, and if they do that for 40 minutes tonight, I think they'll win easily. If they lose focus a little bit, Smith could really hurt them, and it will open up the Deacons' offense for their several other options as well.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Heels in the League
It's NFL conference championship week, and in honor of my boy (former Hawkeye) Shonn Greene being ridiculous all over the Chargers, here's the topic: rank your favorite former Tar Heels in the NFL. Doesn't have to be based on skill, success, talent, whatever, though those probably contribute.
My list:
1. Hakeem Nicks - could be a stud eventually
2. Vonnie Holliday - sick name, sick long career, still getting it done
3. Jeff Reed/Connor Barth (tie) - want to be out at a bar with them after they hit a game winning kick
4. Alge Crumpler - past his prime but that prime was nasty
5. Sam Aiken - Da Bills
6. Fast Willie Parker - loses points cause he didn't get much UNC time, plus how many years does he have left in the tank? But love what he brings to the Steelers
Middle. Dre' Bly - love the guy, feel bad he has been stuck on bad teams for a large part of his career
Last. Gerald Sensabaugh
My list:
1. Hakeem Nicks - could be a stud eventually
2. Vonnie Holliday - sick name, sick long career, still getting it done
3. Jeff Reed/Connor Barth (tie) - want to be out at a bar with them after they hit a game winning kick
4. Alge Crumpler - past his prime but that prime was nasty
5. Sam Aiken - Da Bills
6. Fast Willie Parker - loses points cause he didn't get much UNC time, plus how many years does he have left in the tank? But love what he brings to the Steelers
Middle. Dre' Bly - love the guy, feel bad he has been stuck on bad teams for a large part of his career
Last. Gerald Sensabaugh
Friday, January 15, 2010
"Senior" and "leader" - not synonymous
Oh sorry Oltz, I must still have been on my victory lap from the second straight bowl pick off win. Funny how that happens. I almost celebrated by proposing to Rachel Glandorf at midfield of Texas Memorial Stadium. Seems like someone got there first.
But my post today focuses on this: the fact that Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson are one of the larger reasons this Tar Heel team has underperformed so far.
There's nothing negative than can be said about Ginyard's personality, his devotion to the team to come back for another year, his well spoken-ness, or by all accounts, his work ethic. But there's plenty negative to be said about his performance on the court and his lack of in-game leadership with the team.
Ginyard absolutely needs to be the steadying force, the good decision maker, the ball protector and the organizer of the team when he's on the floor. I'm not sure he's any of those. He turns the ball over way too often, hasn't really figured out how to get himself easy baskets, and doesn't seem to organize the team on the floor the way a senior is expected to.
The problem, really, though, is the turnovers. Besides the point guard, who leads most teams in turnovers by virtue of handling the ball the most, which Tar Heel has the most giveaways on the team? Marcus Ginyard. Guess who's second. Deon Thompson. Assist-turnover ratio is a crude measure, but it's fairly telling in this case.
Against Clemson: Ginyard 1 assist, 5 turnovers. Thompson 1 assist, 5 turnovers. No one else on the team (aside from the point guard) had more than 3 turnovers.
By no means is it the only problem for the team or the most glaring one, but it's the one for which there is little excuse. These guys are seniors and tremendous people...but unless they lead their younger teammates by example with good decision-making, this team's ills won't be cured very fast.
But my post today focuses on this: the fact that Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson are one of the larger reasons this Tar Heel team has underperformed so far.
There's nothing negative than can be said about Ginyard's personality, his devotion to the team to come back for another year, his well spoken-ness, or by all accounts, his work ethic. But there's plenty negative to be said about his performance on the court and his lack of in-game leadership with the team.
Ginyard absolutely needs to be the steadying force, the good decision maker, the ball protector and the organizer of the team when he's on the floor. I'm not sure he's any of those. He turns the ball over way too often, hasn't really figured out how to get himself easy baskets, and doesn't seem to organize the team on the floor the way a senior is expected to.
The problem, really, though, is the turnovers. Besides the point guard, who leads most teams in turnovers by virtue of handling the ball the most, which Tar Heel has the most giveaways on the team? Marcus Ginyard. Guess who's second. Deon Thompson. Assist-turnover ratio is a crude measure, but it's fairly telling in this case.
Against Clemson: Ginyard 1 assist, 5 turnovers. Thompson 1 assist, 5 turnovers. No one else on the team (aside from the point guard) had more than 3 turnovers.
By no means is it the only problem for the team or the most glaring one, but it's the one for which there is little excuse. These guys are seniors and tremendous people...but unless they lead their younger teammates by example with good decision-making, this team's ills won't be cured very fast.
Lot Going On
A LOT has been happening in sports this week without much comment here. This must be changed. Here are my random, not-very-connected thoughts on all that has been occurring:
1) The whole Lane Kiffin-to-USC thing: wow. Maybe some of you out there expected this, but I sure didn't. With Kiffin's 1 year of experience plus the fact that USC is undergoing serious investigations, I thought that the Trojans' brass would go with someone new, outside of the Pete Carroll mold, which they could use potentially in talks with the NCAA. Not sure how it's going to look now when USC goes into their meetings having just hired a coach who has himself been investigated for recruiting violations.
On the other side of this, people need to stop with the all-out hatred of Kiffin for this move. If you want to hate him for what he said and whose feathers he ruffled while at Tennessee, then fine, but we all need to get off our high horse when criticizing him for leaving UT after one season now. If USC is where Kiffin really wants to be, then he has to take the job whenever he is offered it. What did you want him to say? Sorry, guys, USC is where I've always wanted to be, but I can't take the job because I've only been here one season? No. That would be ridiculous.
2) In the world of college hoops, there are some interesting games to watch out for this weekend. On the local front, the Heels have a big stretch coming up, with 3 of their next 4 at home and the one road game at NC State. If UNC expects to make a move in this year's ACC, it really HAS to win 3 of those games, and we should hope to win all 4. Sure, the loss to Clemson was disappointing, but that's a tough matchup for a young backcourt against that press, especially in Littlejohn, where Clemson is 10 times as hard to beat. On the other hand, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, at home, should be games that this team can win, and they really need to in order to start building some momentum.
Elsewhere in the ACC, Wake Forest has a great opportunity Sunday night to make their first in-conference statement against Duke. NC State gets Clemson at home, where the Tigers are prime for an emotional letdown against a Pack team that suddenly has life after a surprising win at Florida State. And the only currently undefeated ACC team, Virginia, has a chance at 3-0 in C'ville against an inconsistent Miami squad.
And then on a national stage the Syracuse-West Virginia game certainly has intrigue, as the Fighting Huggie Bears struggled in their last elite matchup against Purdue. At home, if WVU wants to be considered serious on the national stage, they absolutely need to knock off the Orange in that one.
3) And then there's the NFL playoffs. If the Colts were to lose to the Ravens this weekend, the criticism of Jim Caldwell this offseason will be deafening for the first-time coach. I don't personally think that's going to happen, but it certainly wouldn't be a shocker. I think my favorite right now might be the Chargers, but I don't know if I trust Philip Rivers et al to make that final step after getting deep runs in the playoffs each of the last two seasons before falling short. It's also hard not to like the Cowboys with the way they can run the ball, but everyone and their mother is jumping on their bandwagon, which probably means they're going to lose. Easily the game I'm most looking forward to is the Cardinals-Saints, because Drew Brees and Kurt Warner are two of the best quarterbacks to watch on TV, and they'll be playing on the same field. That Arizona-Green Bay game was probably the best NFL game I've seen since St Louis-Tennessee in the Super Bowl in 2000, and now they get to go against the Saints? Yessir!
If asked to pick the games, I think I'd take the Colts over the Ravens, the Chargers over the Jets, the Cowboys over the Vikings, and the Saints over the Cardinals.
I think I had 2 partners in writing this blog. Not really sure though. Boys? Any thoughts????
Saturday, January 9, 2010
ACC Basketball
With the end of the national championship on Thursday night, it's now time to turn our full attention to college hoops, a move that coincidentally corresponds with the Heels' ACC opener this Sunday night against Virginia Tech. In that vein, thought I'd offer my top 5 thoughts on both Carolina and then a thought on the ACC in general.
5 Thoughts on Carolina basketball:
1) One of my early pet peeves with this season is desire of many to compare this team to the '06 team. Literally the only similarity between the 2 is the fact that they lost a lot of players from a national championship team the year before. If you look at that team in '06, one of the main reasons they were able to be so successful is that, for the most part, that team was made up of a lot of role players- Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Marcus Ginyard, Wes Miller, David Noel, etc all had well-defined roles and didn't really ever try to get too far outside those roles- plus one very special freshman who was the consistent go-to guy in times of crisis (Tyler Hansbrough). This team, on the other hand, is made up of a lot high school studs who are struggling with finding their roles, most of the time in reduced minutes from what they're used to. Also, this team really lacks a go-to scorer in the vein of Hansbrough. If anything, I think this team is more similar to the '07 squad, which had a lot of young studs who struggled to find a consistent rotation where everyone knew what they should do. Of course, that '07 team still had Hansbrough, and if this season needs to be another time for Carolina fans to reflect on how special he was and just how many games he won for us by himself, then so be it, because he was and he did.
2) As frustrating as it was to watch the Heels blow it against Charleston, I don't think in the long run that game matters too much. The great thing about college basketball is that the identity of a team is really formed in conference play. At the end of this season, no matter how Carolina finishes up, I significantly doubt that the thing you will remember is that game. If you don't believe me, look back at past teams. When thinking about the '03 team, I doubt many of you remember that they won the Preseason NIT including a win over a Roy Williams-coached top-10 Kansas team (that would ultimately play for the NCAA championship). When thinking of '05, you probably don't spend too much time thinking about the Santa Clara loss. Nobody remembers too well the blowout loss by the '06 team on the road against a mediocre USC team. And the frustrations we all have when thinking about the '07 team probably have more to do with losing the lead against Georgetown than they do getting owned by Gonzaga in the Preseason NIT. My point is, for better and worse, our memories of this team will be shaped during conference play and then the postseason. So focus on that more than on the past loss.
3) With that said, this team has a lot of issues that need to be fixed soon. Virginia Tech as a team always plays us tough, and then after that we travel to Littlejohn, which has been the site of some nailbiting games for Tar Heel fans. With a young but dangerous Georgia Tech team after that, I think it's easily possible that UNC stands at 0-3 or 3-0 following the start to ACC play. But I think the road will get a lot easier if we can pick up the W tomorrow night against the Hokies.
4) Along those lines, the key for the Virginia Tech game I think is going to be getting off to a good start. With a young team, you don't know how they'll respond to such a bad loss. They might take it too easily or too harshly. Either way, I think an early run against the Hokies that gets that home crowd into the game early is just what we need. So watch for the first 5-10 minutes in that one as a key to how it might turn out.
5) Prediction for tomorrow night's game- I think Larry Drew plays more minutes at the 1, and I think Dexter Strickland plays more minutes at the 2, especially with Ginyard still out with the ankle injury. Strickland is a much different player in the Dean Dome than away from it, and he'll remind us of that. I think Ed Davis builds on one of his best games as a Heel in defeat on Monday and has a monster game against an average Virginia Tech frontcourt. And as long as the defense can focus for at least most of the game (or maybe most of a half?) I think the Heels will be fine at home against the Hokies.
1 Thought for the ACC:
1) Before the season, I felt very strongly that this was going to be an interesting year in the ACC. For the first time in 4 years, there is some uncertainty at the top of the conference. Duke has been solid so far (in all honesty, they've been much better than I thought), and they're clearly the favorite to win as of today. But there are a host of teams that have a unique opportunity this year to grab the limelight. NC State has been looking for traction under Sidney Lowe, and they've looked good at times this year. Virginia has a new coach, and although they haven't been playing well so far, I'm a huge Tony Bennett fan and I wouldn't be surprised if they surprise some teams in conference play. Wake Forest has some very talented players but I'm not sure Dino Gaudio is the answer as a coach. Clemson has been steadily building a winner. Florida State and Miami have had flashes over the past 2 years. The point is, with North Carolina in a bit of a rebuilding year, many of these teams could have a unique opportunity this season to take that next step within the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of those teams can step up and do so.
5 Thoughts on Carolina basketball:
1) One of my early pet peeves with this season is desire of many to compare this team to the '06 team. Literally the only similarity between the 2 is the fact that they lost a lot of players from a national championship team the year before. If you look at that team in '06, one of the main reasons they were able to be so successful is that, for the most part, that team was made up of a lot of role players- Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Marcus Ginyard, Wes Miller, David Noel, etc all had well-defined roles and didn't really ever try to get too far outside those roles- plus one very special freshman who was the consistent go-to guy in times of crisis (Tyler Hansbrough). This team, on the other hand, is made up of a lot high school studs who are struggling with finding their roles, most of the time in reduced minutes from what they're used to. Also, this team really lacks a go-to scorer in the vein of Hansbrough. If anything, I think this team is more similar to the '07 squad, which had a lot of young studs who struggled to find a consistent rotation where everyone knew what they should do. Of course, that '07 team still had Hansbrough, and if this season needs to be another time for Carolina fans to reflect on how special he was and just how many games he won for us by himself, then so be it, because he was and he did.
2) As frustrating as it was to watch the Heels blow it against Charleston, I don't think in the long run that game matters too much. The great thing about college basketball is that the identity of a team is really formed in conference play. At the end of this season, no matter how Carolina finishes up, I significantly doubt that the thing you will remember is that game. If you don't believe me, look back at past teams. When thinking about the '03 team, I doubt many of you remember that they won the Preseason NIT including a win over a Roy Williams-coached top-10 Kansas team (that would ultimately play for the NCAA championship). When thinking of '05, you probably don't spend too much time thinking about the Santa Clara loss. Nobody remembers too well the blowout loss by the '06 team on the road against a mediocre USC team. And the frustrations we all have when thinking about the '07 team probably have more to do with losing the lead against Georgetown than they do getting owned by Gonzaga in the Preseason NIT. My point is, for better and worse, our memories of this team will be shaped during conference play and then the postseason. So focus on that more than on the past loss.
3) With that said, this team has a lot of issues that need to be fixed soon. Virginia Tech as a team always plays us tough, and then after that we travel to Littlejohn, which has been the site of some nailbiting games for Tar Heel fans. With a young but dangerous Georgia Tech team after that, I think it's easily possible that UNC stands at 0-3 or 3-0 following the start to ACC play. But I think the road will get a lot easier if we can pick up the W tomorrow night against the Hokies.
4) Along those lines, the key for the Virginia Tech game I think is going to be getting off to a good start. With a young team, you don't know how they'll respond to such a bad loss. They might take it too easily or too harshly. Either way, I think an early run against the Hokies that gets that home crowd into the game early is just what we need. So watch for the first 5-10 minutes in that one as a key to how it might turn out.
5) Prediction for tomorrow night's game- I think Larry Drew plays more minutes at the 1, and I think Dexter Strickland plays more minutes at the 2, especially with Ginyard still out with the ankle injury. Strickland is a much different player in the Dean Dome than away from it, and he'll remind us of that. I think Ed Davis builds on one of his best games as a Heel in defeat on Monday and has a monster game against an average Virginia Tech frontcourt. And as long as the defense can focus for at least most of the game (or maybe most of a half?) I think the Heels will be fine at home against the Hokies.
1 Thought for the ACC:
1) Before the season, I felt very strongly that this was going to be an interesting year in the ACC. For the first time in 4 years, there is some uncertainty at the top of the conference. Duke has been solid so far (in all honesty, they've been much better than I thought), and they're clearly the favorite to win as of today. But there are a host of teams that have a unique opportunity this year to grab the limelight. NC State has been looking for traction under Sidney Lowe, and they've looked good at times this year. Virginia has a new coach, and although they haven't been playing well so far, I'm a huge Tony Bennett fan and I wouldn't be surprised if they surprise some teams in conference play. Wake Forest has some very talented players but I'm not sure Dino Gaudio is the answer as a coach. Clemson has been steadily building a winner. Florida State and Miami have had flashes over the past 2 years. The point is, with North Carolina in a bit of a rebuilding year, many of these teams could have a unique opportunity this season to take that next step within the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of those teams can step up and do so.
Friday, January 8, 2010
One last miss
Sorry I forgot to post my pick yesterday. For the record, I took Texas +4.5 for $200. So that's another miss for me. Surprise, sur-frickin-prise.
I have to say, that was one of the more brutal non-covers I have experienced. I felt good at kickoff, then conceded defeat when McCoy went down. Then Bama went into a shell, the freshman grew a pair, and miraculously I'm covering again with just 3 minutes to go! All I needed was Texas to not turn the ball over in its own redzone.
Of course, that is EXACTLY what happened. So I felt like I lost the same bet twice in one night. Brutal.
What a shame that the game played out the way it did. Anyone with a pulse has to feel awful for Colt McCoy, who started nearly 50 games in college and didn't get hurt until the most important and final game. Just tragic.
I also thought the last TD by Saban was needless and classless. I wouldn't expect anything else.
Hook 'em.
I have to say, that was one of the more brutal non-covers I have experienced. I felt good at kickoff, then conceded defeat when McCoy went down. Then Bama went into a shell, the freshman grew a pair, and miraculously I'm covering again with just 3 minutes to go! All I needed was Texas to not turn the ball over in its own redzone.
Of course, that is EXACTLY what happened. So I felt like I lost the same bet twice in one night. Brutal.
What a shame that the game played out the way it did. Anyone with a pulse has to feel awful for Colt McCoy, who started nearly 50 games in college and didn't get hurt until the most important and final game. Just tragic.
I also thought the last TD by Saban was needless and classless. I wouldn't expect anything else.
Hook 'em.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
National Championship Pick
As you get ready to watch the National Championship game tonight, think about one thing first. No matter what you may think about the BCS, consider this- I think that most of America would agree that Alabama and Texas are the two best college football teams in the country (Florida has an argument, sure, but they had a playoff of sorts by playing the Tide in the SEC Championship game). And for all that the BCS does NOT give us, one thing it does is that it tries to do just that, to play the 2 best teams in the country against each other for the championship. I would argue that such an occurrence is rare in sports. I would charge you to look back over the NCAA Tournament over the past 10 years and look at how many times you think the 2 best teams over the entire season played in the final. I can think of one time- 2005- when I think that was the case. Is the BCS fair? Certainly not. But does it give us one heck of a game to watch tonight? Absolutely. So let's enjoy that.
National Championship Game, Alabama (-4.5) vs Texas
When you look at these two teams, I think that Alabama is the type of team that you know what you're going to get from. They're going to run the ball well, they're going to have strong line play, and Nick Saban is probably going to structure his game plan such that Greg "Tin Cup" McElroy isn't put into too many situations where he can lose the game for them. Texas, in my opinion, though, has the higher ceiling. They have who I consider to be the best college football player on the field tonight- Colt McCoy- and because of that they're a threat to score enough tonight that Alabama just won't be able to keep up. On the other hand, Texas' offense has yet to click this season against a truly elite defense- they put up just 16 points against Oklahoma and 13 against Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. Then there's a small part of me that thinks that maybe Alabama put a lot of emphasis of beating Florida in the SEC championship to avenge last season's loss, and now there could be some trouble with getting too fat and happy in the month off, especially with so many people loving up on how good they are. I know, it's the national championship game, they should be focused, but there had to be some reason why Saban was so uptight about his players hearing the word "national championship." Also, the SEC is 5-0 in national championship games, which means they're clearly due for a loss, especially at the hands of Mack Brown, who also beat USC in 2005 after Sportscenter had matched up the Trojans with the "greatest teams of all time." In the end, in 50-50 games I like to side with the better quarterback, and here that means Texas. I don't know if I'd pick them straight up, but giving McCoy points? Hook em' Horns. Big Bob's pick: Texas.
National Championship Game, Alabama (-4.5) vs Texas
When you look at these two teams, I think that Alabama is the type of team that you know what you're going to get from. They're going to run the ball well, they're going to have strong line play, and Nick Saban is probably going to structure his game plan such that Greg "Tin Cup" McElroy isn't put into too many situations where he can lose the game for them. Texas, in my opinion, though, has the higher ceiling. They have who I consider to be the best college football player on the field tonight- Colt McCoy- and because of that they're a threat to score enough tonight that Alabama just won't be able to keep up. On the other hand, Texas' offense has yet to click this season against a truly elite defense- they put up just 16 points against Oklahoma and 13 against Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. Then there's a small part of me that thinks that maybe Alabama put a lot of emphasis of beating Florida in the SEC championship to avenge last season's loss, and now there could be some trouble with getting too fat and happy in the month off, especially with so many people loving up on how good they are. I know, it's the national championship game, they should be focused, but there had to be some reason why Saban was so uptight about his players hearing the word "national championship." Also, the SEC is 5-0 in national championship games, which means they're clearly due for a loss, especially at the hands of Mack Brown, who also beat USC in 2005 after Sportscenter had matched up the Trojans with the "greatest teams of all time." In the end, in 50-50 games I like to side with the better quarterback, and here that means Texas. I don't know if I'd pick them straight up, but giving McCoy points? Hook em' Horns. Big Bob's pick: Texas.
College Football Bowl Pick-off, Final Edition
Another year, another bowl pick-off win for Found. It would be nice if this event were a little bit more competitive, but you just have to beat the opponents who are on your schedule, right?
Alright don't worry, I'm done gloating. At least until my celebratory winner's blog post, coming later.
For now, I'll eschew usual analysis of our last bowl game, since there's plenty of that going around, and look at things from a different angle: what are the ramifications if either team wins?
Thursday: BCS National Championship - Alabama (-4.5) vs Texas
If 'Bama wins:
-SEC's reputation further heightened, to a point that a lot of people probably don't want to hear
-Nick Saban vindicated, fully sheds the villain tag that a few still charge him with
-'Bama now becomes Exhibit A for "look what happens if you get a top-tier coach and pay him boatloads of money...he'll win a national title for you in just 3 seasons!"
-Winning with a gameplan of running and defense becomes more attractive
-Colt McCoy graduates with a close-but-no-cigar career
-Could Boise State beat Alabama?
If Texas wins:
-Arguments made for Texas being the best program in the country currently
-Colt McCoy graduates as one of the best "winners" in college football history
-Texas-Oklahoma rivalry gap further widened
-Mack Brown vindicated, proving it wasn't just Vince Young that won Texas' other national title under Brown
-Mark Ingram continues Heisman jinx in national championship
-Questions arise focusing on whether Saban can win the big one
-Could Boise State beat Texas?
Found's pick: Crimson Tide
Alright don't worry, I'm done gloating. At least until my celebratory winner's blog post, coming later.
For now, I'll eschew usual analysis of our last bowl game, since there's plenty of that going around, and look at things from a different angle: what are the ramifications if either team wins?
Thursday: BCS National Championship - Alabama (-4.5) vs Texas
If 'Bama wins:
-SEC's reputation further heightened, to a point that a lot of people probably don't want to hear
-Nick Saban vindicated, fully sheds the villain tag that a few still charge him with
-'Bama now becomes Exhibit A for "look what happens if you get a top-tier coach and pay him boatloads of money...he'll win a national title for you in just 3 seasons!"
-Winning with a gameplan of running and defense becomes more attractive
-Colt McCoy graduates with a close-but-no-cigar career
-Could Boise State beat Alabama?
If Texas wins:
-Arguments made for Texas being the best program in the country currently
-Colt McCoy graduates as one of the best "winners" in college football history
-Texas-Oklahoma rivalry gap further widened
-Mack Brown vindicated, proving it wasn't just Vince Young that won Texas' other national title under Brown
-Mark Ingram continues Heisman jinx in national championship
-Questions arise focusing on whether Saban can win the big one
-Could Boise State beat Texas?
Found's pick: Crimson Tide
Monday, January 4, 2010
I'm still awful at this
First off, I want to give a shout out (can I do that if I'm white?) to the juniors on UNC's defense who announced they're all coming back next year. Marvin Austin, Quan Sturdivant, Bruce Carter, Kendric Burney, and Deunta Williams all would've been drafted if they had declared, but they believed they're all be back as seniors. This basically guarantees that UNC will have the best defense in the ACC next year and a top-10 unit nationally, and it also gives us a shot to beat LSU in the season opener and contend for an ACC title. We'll discuss this a lot more in the future, but I am surprised and excited that all of them are returning.
I'm going to agree with Found that yesterday's NFL games were terrible. However, I was actually rooting for one of those teams to tank. As a Bengals fan, I actually wanted my team to lose last night to guarantee a rematch against the Jets instead of a rematch against the Texans (who already drilled Cincy earlier in the year and always lights up the Bengals defense). I didn't feel good about rooting for my team to lose, but it was a necessary evil to give us the best chance in the playoffs.
But I don't like people who cite Week 17 in the NFL as a reason that college football "gets it right" by not having a playoff. I think that BS because it only happens for one week, maybe two, of the season. In college football, a playoff system would still require teams to have 1 or 2 losses at the most, so it's not like they'd be able to take a month off and coast. Games would still mean something, and I highly doubt an 11-0 Alabama team would rest its starters and lose the Iron Bowl just to get ready for its first playoff game. I'm not calling Found out for promoting a non-playoff system - just a side rant that his post reminded me about.
Boise St. +7.5 over TCU
There's no doubt in my mind that TCU has been the more impressive team this year. The Horned Frogs play better defense than Boise, and they have more impressive wins (I discount Boise's win over Oregon because it was in Week 1). However, I have generally been wrong about every bowl game this year, so I'll pick the opposite of what I really think and go with Boise to keep it within a TD. Ironically, I see this game as more of a 20-14 slugfest than a 45-42 shootout. I am basing this prediction on Boise's game against Oregon (which I realize I already discarded earlier in this paragraph) and TCU's ability to smother teams defensively.
Georgia Tech -3.5 over Iowa
Aside from the UNC game, this was by far the easiest game of all the bowls for me to pick. One, my girlfriend is a Yellow Jacket and she's one of only about 6 people who could theoretically read this post. She'd be pissed if I took Iowa. Two, I am starting to believe in the triple option after being one of its biggest detractors for the past year. People like Oltz who think that GT only runs three plays are woefully mistaken. Paul Johnson is one of the smartest coaches (note: sheer intelligence doesn't always correlate with winning; see Miles, Les) in football, and his offense has so many damn wrinkles and intricacies that it changes just enough week to week to give defenses fits. Three, Iowa sucks. I'm sorry Gregg, but your Hawkeyes got bye on smoke and mirrors for long enough. Good teams don't get down by 3 TD's to Indiana. Good teams don't beat beat Northern Iowa by 1 point at home. It will always concern me when a team has a month to get ready for the option offense, but I am sticking to my guns here and taking the Jackets. Up with the White and Gold!!!
Troy +3.5 over Central Michigan
I don't know much about this game, but here's what I do know: Central Michigan plays in the MAC, and the MAC (0-4 in bowl games so far) sucks more than a girl on Tiger Woods' speed dial. I also know that Troy runs the spread for nearly 500 yards/game and drilled LSU in Death Valley last year for two-thirds of a game before collapsing. Give me the points.
Oltz - I will get back to you shortly with my Butch Davis thoughts.
I'm going to agree with Found that yesterday's NFL games were terrible. However, I was actually rooting for one of those teams to tank. As a Bengals fan, I actually wanted my team to lose last night to guarantee a rematch against the Jets instead of a rematch against the Texans (who already drilled Cincy earlier in the year and always lights up the Bengals defense). I didn't feel good about rooting for my team to lose, but it was a necessary evil to give us the best chance in the playoffs.
But I don't like people who cite Week 17 in the NFL as a reason that college football "gets it right" by not having a playoff. I think that BS because it only happens for one week, maybe two, of the season. In college football, a playoff system would still require teams to have 1 or 2 losses at the most, so it's not like they'd be able to take a month off and coast. Games would still mean something, and I highly doubt an 11-0 Alabama team would rest its starters and lose the Iron Bowl just to get ready for its first playoff game. I'm not calling Found out for promoting a non-playoff system - just a side rant that his post reminded me about.
Boise St. +7.5 over TCU
There's no doubt in my mind that TCU has been the more impressive team this year. The Horned Frogs play better defense than Boise, and they have more impressive wins (I discount Boise's win over Oregon because it was in Week 1). However, I have generally been wrong about every bowl game this year, so I'll pick the opposite of what I really think and go with Boise to keep it within a TD. Ironically, I see this game as more of a 20-14 slugfest than a 45-42 shootout. I am basing this prediction on Boise's game against Oregon (which I realize I already discarded earlier in this paragraph) and TCU's ability to smother teams defensively.
Georgia Tech -3.5 over Iowa
Aside from the UNC game, this was by far the easiest game of all the bowls for me to pick. One, my girlfriend is a Yellow Jacket and she's one of only about 6 people who could theoretically read this post. She'd be pissed if I took Iowa. Two, I am starting to believe in the triple option after being one of its biggest detractors for the past year. People like Oltz who think that GT only runs three plays are woefully mistaken. Paul Johnson is one of the smartest coaches (note: sheer intelligence doesn't always correlate with winning; see Miles, Les) in football, and his offense has so many damn wrinkles and intricacies that it changes just enough week to week to give defenses fits. Three, Iowa sucks. I'm sorry Gregg, but your Hawkeyes got bye on smoke and mirrors for long enough. Good teams don't get down by 3 TD's to Indiana. Good teams don't beat beat Northern Iowa by 1 point at home. It will always concern me when a team has a month to get ready for the option offense, but I am sticking to my guns here and taking the Jackets. Up with the White and Gold!!!
Troy +3.5 over Central Michigan
I don't know much about this game, but here's what I do know: Central Michigan plays in the MAC, and the MAC (0-4 in bowl games so far) sucks more than a girl on Tiger Woods' speed dial. I also know that Troy runs the spread for nearly 500 yards/game and drilled LSU in Death Valley last year for two-thirds of a game before collapsing. Give me the points.
Oltz - I will get back to you shortly with my Butch Davis thoughts.
Almost There...
Time to watch college football in earnest, boys, because we're about 4 days from having none for 7 months... Yzgoltz.
Also, Byrum has almost caught me in the Bowl Pick-off. Time to step it up...
Fiesta Bowl, Jan 4th, Boise State vs TCU (-7.5)
This is the sad part about this game- these 2 teams are ranked #4 and #6, and yet I know next to nothing about either team to feel smart about picking who's going to win. They just don't play enough prime-time games, although Boise does do a good job of taking the random Tuesday night 8 PM ESPN games. However, I will add that I think GENERALLY that TCU is the more battle-tested squad here, if for no other reason that the Mountain West contains some actually decent teams, rather than the WAC, which is for the most part terrible. So I think that they're going to win this game, but I don't know if there are many teams in the country who could feel too comfortable spotting the Broncos 7.5 points. I'll take Boise to cover. Big Bob's pick: Boise State.
Orange Bowl, Jan 5th, Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa
These 3 things I know are true: 1) I love to pick against the Big Ten 2) I'd LOVE for the ACC to get a winning streak going in BCS bowl games 3) I'm not all that impressed with Iowa as an elite college football team. This points to me picking the Ramblin' Wreck, but I just can't get the Jackets' epic pounding by LSU in last season's Peach Bowl out of my head. When you get down to it, any coach worth his salt should love the opportunity to play Georgia Tech with a month to prepare. That's far too long to prepare for defending 3 offensive plays. And I believe Kirk Ferentz is worth his salt. Big Bob's pick: Iowa.
GMAC Bowl, Jan 6th, Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy
What is this game doing here? What did the GMAC bowl do to get this time slot? Central Michigan's QB is nasty, although I can't remember his name. Good enough for me. Big Bob's pick: Central Michigan.
Updated records:
Found: 14-11
Oltzy: 10-15
Byrum: 8-17
Also, Byrum has almost caught me in the Bowl Pick-off. Time to step it up...
Fiesta Bowl, Jan 4th, Boise State vs TCU (-7.5)
This is the sad part about this game- these 2 teams are ranked #4 and #6, and yet I know next to nothing about either team to feel smart about picking who's going to win. They just don't play enough prime-time games, although Boise does do a good job of taking the random Tuesday night 8 PM ESPN games. However, I will add that I think GENERALLY that TCU is the more battle-tested squad here, if for no other reason that the Mountain West contains some actually decent teams, rather than the WAC, which is for the most part terrible. So I think that they're going to win this game, but I don't know if there are many teams in the country who could feel too comfortable spotting the Broncos 7.5 points. I'll take Boise to cover. Big Bob's pick: Boise State.
Orange Bowl, Jan 5th, Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa
These 3 things I know are true: 1) I love to pick against the Big Ten 2) I'd LOVE for the ACC to get a winning streak going in BCS bowl games 3) I'm not all that impressed with Iowa as an elite college football team. This points to me picking the Ramblin' Wreck, but I just can't get the Jackets' epic pounding by LSU in last season's Peach Bowl out of my head. When you get down to it, any coach worth his salt should love the opportunity to play Georgia Tech with a month to prepare. That's far too long to prepare for defending 3 offensive plays. And I believe Kirk Ferentz is worth his salt. Big Bob's pick: Iowa.
GMAC Bowl, Jan 6th, Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy
What is this game doing here? What did the GMAC bowl do to get this time slot? Central Michigan's QB is nasty, although I can't remember his name. Good enough for me. Big Bob's pick: Central Michigan.
Updated records:
Found: 14-11
Oltzy: 10-15
Byrum: 8-17
College Football Bowl Pick-off, Round Seven
Watching the (generally awful) slate of NFL games yesterday, which featured teams not trying, unnecessary injuries, few compelling matchups and generally not much excitement....makes me glad for college football.
In college, there's always incentive to win. You don't clinch anything and then rest on your laurels. You don't tank for a higher draft pick. Every win brings a shot at a better bowl, a conference title, or just some damn bragging rights. Every week from week one to the bowls is competitive - and there aren't postseason rematches of games that just happened a week earlier.
Here's to you, college pigskin. Go Hawkeyes.
Monday: Fiesta Bowl - TCU (-7.5) vs Boise State
Don't tell me you're not into this game, even if 95 percent of America couldn't name more than a player or two on either team. These teams will both come to play, cause there's something pretty sweet about finishing a season undefeated regardless of whether it comes with a national title or not. Surely TCU would like a shot at a major conference team, but in order to complete their argument, they'd have to win this game. A loss and your yelling falls silent. I love that this game could end up 48-42 and I hate that the spread is so huge. But all season long TCU has played like a team possessed and it's not time to stop now. Found's pick: TCU
Tuesday: Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa
I'll admit that this matchup isn't very sexy, doesn't come with a lot of history and might not draw a lot of casual viewers. But for just some quality, old-school, tough and classic football, you can't get much better than this. Most people want to talk about whether Iowa can stop Tech's triple-option, how much time they have to prepare for it and yada yada. My concern, or key to the game, is whether Ricky Stanzi's return means the Iowa offense can score enough to win. Remember that Iowa has suffered injuries to its top four running backs, doesn't really have a go-to wide receiver and basically can't score points in a hurry if it needs to. So even if the defense holds Georgia Tech to 17 points...will that be enough? Well it's been an amazing ride so far, probably my favorite of any season during my lifetime, and it might as well have one more stop. Found's pick: Hawkeyes
Wednesday: GMAC Bowl - Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy
I've already spilled enough ink on the first two games that this one needs to be short and sweet. Love the offense that this bowl could provide, hesitant about C. Mich playing with an interim coach but I think Dan LeFevour caps a tremendous college career in style. Found's pick: Central Michigan
In college, there's always incentive to win. You don't clinch anything and then rest on your laurels. You don't tank for a higher draft pick. Every win brings a shot at a better bowl, a conference title, or just some damn bragging rights. Every week from week one to the bowls is competitive - and there aren't postseason rematches of games that just happened a week earlier.
Here's to you, college pigskin. Go Hawkeyes.
Monday: Fiesta Bowl - TCU (-7.5) vs Boise State
Don't tell me you're not into this game, even if 95 percent of America couldn't name more than a player or two on either team. These teams will both come to play, cause there's something pretty sweet about finishing a season undefeated regardless of whether it comes with a national title or not. Surely TCU would like a shot at a major conference team, but in order to complete their argument, they'd have to win this game. A loss and your yelling falls silent. I love that this game could end up 48-42 and I hate that the spread is so huge. But all season long TCU has played like a team possessed and it's not time to stop now. Found's pick: TCU
Tuesday: Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Iowa
I'll admit that this matchup isn't very sexy, doesn't come with a lot of history and might not draw a lot of casual viewers. But for just some quality, old-school, tough and classic football, you can't get much better than this. Most people want to talk about whether Iowa can stop Tech's triple-option, how much time they have to prepare for it and yada yada. My concern, or key to the game, is whether Ricky Stanzi's return means the Iowa offense can score enough to win. Remember that Iowa has suffered injuries to its top four running backs, doesn't really have a go-to wide receiver and basically can't score points in a hurry if it needs to. So even if the defense holds Georgia Tech to 17 points...will that be enough? Well it's been an amazing ride so far, probably my favorite of any season during my lifetime, and it might as well have one more stop. Found's pick: Hawkeyes
Wednesday: GMAC Bowl - Central Michigan (-3.5) vs Troy
I've already spilled enough ink on the first two games that this one needs to be short and sweet. Love the offense that this bowl could provide, hesitant about C. Mich playing with an interim coach but I think Dan LeFevour caps a tremendous college career in style. Found's pick: Central Michigan
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Reviewing the Butch Era So Far
In response to Found's earlier post, here are some quick, certainly belated, thoughts on the end of year 3 of Butch Davis at UNC:
- I think there's a lot to be said for the pessimist vs. optimist battle that Found put out there. It really has been a bit of a two-sided run for BD so far in Chapel Hill. On the one hand, there is a lot to be excited about- consecutive bowl appearances, some big-time wins (ND, Va Tech in Blacksburg, 3-0 vs Miami, etc), and a significant stint in the top 25 each of the past 2 seasons. But just as easily there are some question marks- 0-2 in bowl games, 0-6 against NC State and Virginia. In the end, I thought Butch was a touch ahead of my personal expectations last season, but thought things were a little behind my expectations for this season. While there's no doubt that the talent level has increased, there were some pretty disappointing lows this year that are tough to forget.
- There are some who will be happy if Carolina simply wins 7-9 games every season and is an annual participant in bowls, as BC has been for the past decade or perhaps UVa under George Welsh some time back. While some might look at this as defeatist, I'm not quite to that point, but I do think our expectations should be a little bit higher given the amount of money we are now investing in the program. I'm still struggling with the idea of UNC as a true national contender, as Butch has said he expects us to be, but I think contending for 10 wins and an occasional conference championship is certainly something we should hope for. And we're obviously not quite to that goal yet, although I think it would be foolish to expect that after just 3 seasons.
- However, with that said I really think that next year will be a true make-or-break season as far as whether we can turn the program under this coaching staff. Recruiting has dried up just a little bit from the initial success, and even the schedule reflects what should be increased expectations next season, with the season opener against LSU in the Georgia Dome. Also, here is a decent article reflecting just what the Heels have returning and how dangerous they could be. Some may laugh at us for doing this, but I think a reasonable expectation should be to seriously contend for at least a division title next season. If we go 8-5 again, I worry that the newness of Butch at UNC may begin to wear off, and we may struggle to turn that corner again in the future. Perhaps I'm being too short-sighted, but I really feel this is the chance. A lot is set up well for success in 2010 for the Heels football program. I'm already excited about that chance.
- Byrum, any thoughts on this?
Happy New Year
Sorry about the lack of posting yesterday. But I finally figured out what is worse than my ability to pick bowl games - and that is food poisoning. I picked up a nasty case of it at dinner on NYE, and I have been in epic pain and nausea for the last 36 hours. I'm just starting to recover, so I'm sorry for not posting until now - I just woke up. Anyways, on to my picks:
South Florida -6.5 over N. Illinois
I like USF's quarterback, BJ Daniels. He is absurdly athletic and makes a lot of plays after they break down. The Bulls have covered for me a couple times this year, so I'm gonna ride them again. Long live Tampa.
South Carolina -4.5 over UCONN
I don't have a lot of faith in South Carolina, but I have even less faith in UCONN to score points in this one. The Huskies' offense is pretty one-dimensional, and the Gamecocks are usually stout against the run. UCONN has made a habit of keeping games close this year, but I think South Carolina wins this one comfortably. I see 24-7.
Oklahoma St +2.5 over Ole Miss
OK State should have their starting RB and QB healthy for this game, which is huge. Jevan Snead never materialized into the QB that Rebel fans expected this season, but Dexter McCluster came on strong late in the year. I think this will be an entertaining game. I'm taking OK State because I trust Zac Robinson more than Snead.
East Carolina +7.5 over Arkansas
I'm biased towards the Pirates in this one - my brother and my mom both went to school there. Everyone seems to assume that Ryan Mallett will light it up and the Razorbacks will run away with this one. However, a lot of people assumed the same thing about Case Keenum and Houston a few weeks ago in the Conference USA title game. Somehow, I think ECU keeps it close here, and they might even pull the upset. Arrrgh!!!!
Texas Tech -7.5 over Michigan State
I don't know what to make of this game. Texas Tech is obviously playing without its coach and offensive coordinator, but Michigan State had ELEVEN players suspended for a brawl in a dorm a month ago. At the end of the day, Michigan State was terrible this year, and Texas Tech was solid. So I'll lay the points here. On a side note, I think it is AWESOME that Mike Leach has totally stuck to his guns during this debacle. He has refused to apologize and basically painted Craig James' family as a bunch of meddling, overprotective liars. I don't know who is telling the truth, but I definitely respect Leach's refusal to adhere to modern public relations standards.
I'm going to like back in the fetal position again. Food poisoning is worse than a bowl game in Canada...
South Florida -6.5 over N. Illinois
I like USF's quarterback, BJ Daniels. He is absurdly athletic and makes a lot of plays after they break down. The Bulls have covered for me a couple times this year, so I'm gonna ride them again. Long live Tampa.
South Carolina -4.5 over UCONN
I don't have a lot of faith in South Carolina, but I have even less faith in UCONN to score points in this one. The Huskies' offense is pretty one-dimensional, and the Gamecocks are usually stout against the run. UCONN has made a habit of keeping games close this year, but I think South Carolina wins this one comfortably. I see 24-7.
Oklahoma St +2.5 over Ole Miss
OK State should have their starting RB and QB healthy for this game, which is huge. Jevan Snead never materialized into the QB that Rebel fans expected this season, but Dexter McCluster came on strong late in the year. I think this will be an entertaining game. I'm taking OK State because I trust Zac Robinson more than Snead.
East Carolina +7.5 over Arkansas
I'm biased towards the Pirates in this one - my brother and my mom both went to school there. Everyone seems to assume that Ryan Mallett will light it up and the Razorbacks will run away with this one. However, a lot of people assumed the same thing about Case Keenum and Houston a few weeks ago in the Conference USA title game. Somehow, I think ECU keeps it close here, and they might even pull the upset. Arrrgh!!!!
Texas Tech -7.5 over Michigan State
I don't know what to make of this game. Texas Tech is obviously playing without its coach and offensive coordinator, but Michigan State had ELEVEN players suspended for a brawl in a dorm a month ago. At the end of the day, Michigan State was terrible this year, and Texas Tech was solid. So I'll lay the points here. On a side note, I think it is AWESOME that Mike Leach has totally stuck to his guns during this debacle. He has refused to apologize and basically painted Craig James' family as a bunch of meddling, overprotective liars. I don't know who is telling the truth, but I definitely respect Leach's refusal to adhere to modern public relations standards.
I'm going to like back in the fetal position again. Food poisoning is worse than a bowl game in Canada...
College Football Bowl Pick-off, Round Six
This difference in bowl matchups from Jan. 1 to Jan. 2 is as much of a letdown as John Henson's young career for the Tar Heels has been. Yeesh
International Bowl, South Florida (-6.5) vs Northern Illinois
I'll say this for Northern Illinois, they probably want to be at this bowl in Toronto a lot more than the team from Tampa wants to be in Canada on Jan. 2. And since bowl games largely depend simply on who wants to play harder than the other team, it's tempting to go with N. Illinois here. But c'mon, it's Northern Illinois and South Florida probably out-talents them across the board. George Selvie could have a Suh-like performance. Found's pick: South Florida
Papajohn's.com Bowl, South Carolina (-4.5) vs Connecticut
Screw it, South Carolina is the better team here but UConn has just had the knack for keeping games close of late, win or lose. Plus Birmingham, Alabama (Richard Johanson) is a much better place to be right now than central Connecticut, so the Huskies will be psyched to be there. Found's pick: Connecticut
Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State
Not sure why Ok State is getting points in this game...the Cowboys are the ranked team with the better record. Probably has something to do with SEC love. Good matchup though, interesting plotlines and some recognizable names in this game. The team that doesn't get caught staring around new Cowboys Stadium in awe and just plays its game probably wins. Ole Miss' top receiver is named Hodge, which obviously complicates this pick. The points don't really help, so you might as well pick the outright winner. Found's pick: Oklahoma State
Liberty Bowl, Arkansas (-7.5) vs East Carolina
Much respect to what Skip Holtz has done with ECU's program; he's certainly proven they have the ability to knock off a major conference team and a good major conference team too. Arkansas is a good major conference team but with plenty of prep time, they won't succumb to the Pirates. Found's pick: Razorbacks
Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech (-7.5) vs Michigan State
This would have been a tough one to pick before all the crap went down at Texas Tech, but now it's a little too easy. My favorite game of the year was Iowa-Michigan State and if the Spartans play just as solid and Big Ten-esque in that one, they'll be fine here. Found's pick: Sparty
International Bowl, South Florida (-6.5) vs Northern Illinois
I'll say this for Northern Illinois, they probably want to be at this bowl in Toronto a lot more than the team from Tampa wants to be in Canada on Jan. 2. And since bowl games largely depend simply on who wants to play harder than the other team, it's tempting to go with N. Illinois here. But c'mon, it's Northern Illinois and South Florida probably out-talents them across the board. George Selvie could have a Suh-like performance. Found's pick: South Florida
Papajohn's.com Bowl, South Carolina (-4.5) vs Connecticut
Screw it, South Carolina is the better team here but UConn has just had the knack for keeping games close of late, win or lose. Plus Birmingham, Alabama (Richard Johanson) is a much better place to be right now than central Connecticut, so the Huskies will be psyched to be there. Found's pick: Connecticut
Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State
Not sure why Ok State is getting points in this game...the Cowboys are the ranked team with the better record. Probably has something to do with SEC love. Good matchup though, interesting plotlines and some recognizable names in this game. The team that doesn't get caught staring around new Cowboys Stadium in awe and just plays its game probably wins. Ole Miss' top receiver is named Hodge, which obviously complicates this pick. The points don't really help, so you might as well pick the outright winner. Found's pick: Oklahoma State
Liberty Bowl, Arkansas (-7.5) vs East Carolina
Much respect to what Skip Holtz has done with ECU's program; he's certainly proven they have the ability to knock off a major conference team and a good major conference team too. Arkansas is a good major conference team but with plenty of prep time, they won't succumb to the Pirates. Found's pick: Razorbacks
Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech (-7.5) vs Michigan State
This would have been a tough one to pick before all the crap went down at Texas Tech, but now it's a little too easy. My favorite game of the year was Iowa-Michigan State and if the Spartans play just as solid and Big Ten-esque in that one, they'll be fine here. Found's pick: Sparty
Jan 2nd Bowl picks
So none of us could get up early enough on New Year's Day to post our picks before the games began. Big SL there.
As for the New Year's bowl action, I thought the two biggest statements (no surprise here) were clearly Ohio State and Florida. The Bucks returned to the big stage with a Rose Bowl victory over Oregon that included Terrelle Pryor's first collegiate game looking like a real quarterback (including a man-sized back shoulder throw to ice it for the 26-17 touchdown- sick throw). Florida, on the other hand, showed the rest of the country that maybe, just maybe, the BCS got this one right by pounding overmatched Cincinnati. There are far more questions than answers for Florida going forward, but for now they can enjoy a dominant victory.
Now, on to the next round:
International Bowl, South Florida (-6.5) vs Northern Illinois
You have to love this. We give Canada a college football bowl and then send them this game. Why isn't it played on like December 20th? Anyhow, South Florida successfully got themselves overranked with another strong start this year only to lose 5 of 6 down the stretch. It's getting ridiculous how many times they do that. Still, I think they can probably take NIU. Big Bob's pick: South Florida.
Papajohn's.com Bowl, South Carolina (-4.5) vs Connecticut
How much longer do you think Steve Spurrier can hold on at South Carolina? After years of contending for the SEC at Florida, he can't be satisfied with continually going 7-5. In this game, I think clearly the Gamecocks have the better talent, but I really like Randy Edsall and his team has really bounced back from an incredible tragedy to win some big games down the stretch and get to the postseason. I think the difference here is the South Carolina defense, which should be able to bottle up the Huskies' run attack. Big Bob's pick: South Carolina.
Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State
It's quite fitting that Ole Miss and OK State meet in a bowl game; both started the season with huge expectations and a top 10 ranking, but ultimately struggled down the stretch to live up to that. Still, there's a lot of offensive talent on the field here, from Jevon Snead to Zac Robinson to Dexter McCluster. I could go either way here, especially since both teams laid eggs in the last game of the season. When in doubt, take the points. Big Bob's pick: Oklahoma State.
Liberty Bowl, Arkansas (-7.5) vs East Carolina
They're calling for me to board my flight home to NC, so I've got to hurry. I would love nothing more than to pick ECU here, especially with the touchdown spread, but I just don't see it. If UNC can pound the Pirates, Ryan Mallette definitely can. Big Bob's pick: Arkansas
Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech (-7.5) vs Michigan State
The Big Ten has been on a roll, and who knows what's going on in Lubbock. This one seems too easy. Give me those points. Big Bob's pick: Sparty.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Happy 2010
And welcome to the first of Oltzy's picks for the New Year.
Outback Bowl, Auburn (-7.5) vs Northwestern
I don't know anything about Northwestern, but as a general rule I'm not taking them to beat an SEC team. The touchdown spread, however, makes it interesting. However, I think Auburn has enough motivation in this game to come out focused and ready, and I think Chizik really wants this game to continue to quiet his doubters from a year ago. Big Bob's pick: Auburn
Gator Bowl, West Virginia (-2.5) vs Florida State
This game is everything that is wrong with college bowls. NEITHER of these teams deserve to be in a Jan 1 bowl game ahead of others in their conference who were sent to lesser bowls. As for the game, FSU gave up 200+ yards on the ground to Carolina; I just don't see how they can stop Noel Devine, even if it is Bowden's last game. Big Bob's pick: West Virginia
Capital One Bowl, Penn State (-2.5) vs LSU
Seriously? LSU is getting points in this game? I love picking against the Big Ten under any circumstances, but this is too easy. Big Bob's pick: LSU
Rose Bowl, Oregon (-3.5) vs Ohio State
This is tough for me. I usually love to pick against Tressellball because I think it is far too conservative to beat other ranked teams, but here it may work. Oregon doesn't have too many players (or any) that have played on a stage like the Rose Bowl, and Tressell's game plan may just be the perfect way to entice the Ducks into enough mistakes to lose. Like, for example, punching players in the face. Big Bob's pick: Ohio State. Can't believe I just did that.
Sugar Bowl, Florida (-10.5) vs Cincinnati
This is a great bowl matchup because the outcome could really impact the seasons to come. If the Bearkitties come to N'Orleans and knock off the Gators, then it will give credence to both the Big East and "lesser-known" undefeated teams who are hoping for BCS Championship game births in the future. If Florida blows out Cincy, the opposite effect will occur. I really like Brian Kelly and all that he did with this team, but he's not there any more and I just don't see how the Bearcats keep this close. Ten points is a lot to give up in the Sugar Bowl, but I gotta do it. Big Bob's pick: Florida.
Outback Bowl, Auburn (-7.5) vs Northwestern
I don't know anything about Northwestern, but as a general rule I'm not taking them to beat an SEC team. The touchdown spread, however, makes it interesting. However, I think Auburn has enough motivation in this game to come out focused and ready, and I think Chizik really wants this game to continue to quiet his doubters from a year ago. Big Bob's pick: Auburn
Gator Bowl, West Virginia (-2.5) vs Florida State
This game is everything that is wrong with college bowls. NEITHER of these teams deserve to be in a Jan 1 bowl game ahead of others in their conference who were sent to lesser bowls. As for the game, FSU gave up 200+ yards on the ground to Carolina; I just don't see how they can stop Noel Devine, even if it is Bowden's last game. Big Bob's pick: West Virginia
Capital One Bowl, Penn State (-2.5) vs LSU
Seriously? LSU is getting points in this game? I love picking against the Big Ten under any circumstances, but this is too easy. Big Bob's pick: LSU
Rose Bowl, Oregon (-3.5) vs Ohio State
This is tough for me. I usually love to pick against Tressellball because I think it is far too conservative to beat other ranked teams, but here it may work. Oregon doesn't have too many players (or any) that have played on a stage like the Rose Bowl, and Tressell's game plan may just be the perfect way to entice the Ducks into enough mistakes to lose. Like, for example, punching players in the face. Big Bob's pick: Ohio State. Can't believe I just did that.
Sugar Bowl, Florida (-10.5) vs Cincinnati
This is a great bowl matchup because the outcome could really impact the seasons to come. If the Bearkitties come to N'Orleans and knock off the Gators, then it will give credence to both the Big East and "lesser-known" undefeated teams who are hoping for BCS Championship game births in the future. If Florida blows out Cincy, the opposite effect will occur. I really like Brian Kelly and all that he did with this team, but he's not there any more and I just don't see how the Bearcats keep this close. Ten points is a lot to give up in the Sugar Bowl, but I gotta do it. Big Bob's pick: Florida.
Updated Records:
Found: 12-8
Oltzy: 9-11
Byrum: 5-15
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